Chipotle (CMG) -- Earnings Surprise Incoming?

For months, restaurant investors have been timid.

Seemingly everywhere you looked in food-away-from-home in Q1, the signals were turning soft. McDonald’s said the low-income consumer was under pressure. Starbucks missed expectations and blamed weak U.S. traffic. Domino’s and Yum reported softening domestic demand.

When Chipotle (CMG) posted its first same-store sales decline since 2020, it looked like the whole category was finally breaking.

New data suggests the consumer is back.

Our aggregated bucket of seven key players—including Chipotle Mexican Grill, Shake Shack, and Steak ‘n Shake—shows a robust +19% year-over-year growth in digital traffic in the fast-casual dining category in the last two weeks alone.

According to American Express, dining out rose 8% quarter over quarter through Q2.

This resilience stems from a mix of factors: steady job growth from the latest reports, easing inflation pressures, and a consumer base eager to treat themselves without breaking the bank.

Fast-casual chains, with their blend of quality and convenience, capture this shift better than full-service restaurants or quick-service rivals, where growth has stagnated.

Here’s what that means for Chipotle ahead of earnings…

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