How This Retail Giant Can Win Big

The average-to-low income consumer is showing signs of strain with consumer sentiment falling significantly. 90-day credit card delinquencies also spiked 8.5% QoQ to the highest level since 2011.

But as we discussed in the weekly roundup on Friday, consumers are still spending at high rates.

They're getting picky about where and how they spend as they attempt to max out their purchasing power and maximize value.

That shift puts TJX in a favorable position. The company’s off-price model caters directly to the value-driven mindset, and CEO Ernie Herrman leaned into that message on the last earnings call: “Our primary focus remains our value gap versus traditional retailers.”

That’s the key. Consumers still want brand names—they just want them at discount.

This shift isn’t isolated to one income bracket either.

42% of Nordstrom shoppers also shop at T.J. Maxx, an 8-point increase since 2021. Dillard’s shoppers have also exuded a nearly identical trend.

If you couple this spending bias with TJX's unique tariff positioning, you get a very compelling earnings setup. Here's what we're watching…

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