Is it time to be bullish $UBER?

Uber's stock is currently trading ~15% lower than it was in October 2024, dinged by Tesla's announcement that it will begin robo-taxi production in 2026. 

Investors fear Uber could lose market share in autonomous ride-hailing, and disappointing guidance alongside broader economic concerns have kept the stock stagnant.

We're breaking down the bullish and bearish case from here—but Uber's long-term trajectory likely hinges on its ability to integrate autonomous driving.

Bullish Case

Autonomous Vehicle Partnerships

Uber has positioned itself in the AV space through partnerships with companies like Waymo, operating in Phoenix since October 2023 and expanding to Austin in March 2025, with Atlanta next. In Austin, Uber users requesting certain ride options may be matched with Waymo's fully autonomous, all-electric Jaguar I-PACE vehicles. If autonomous rides increase total ride volume, Uber could benefit from lower labor costs and higher vehicle utilization—though revenue-sharing agreements with AV providers could impact profitability.

The self-driving taxi market, currently worth $1 billion, is projected to exceed $2 trillion over the next decade. Even if Tesla and Waymo operate independently, increased vehicle availability could expand overall ride-hailing demand—keeping Uber as a key distribution platform.

Strong Core Business Performance

Uber reported $44 billion in revenue for 2024, with a 20% increase in Q4. Ride-hailing accounted for more than half, while Uber Eats contributed about a third. Management expects a 19% rise in gross bookings for Q1 2025, though currency fluctuations may limit growth.

Expansion into a 'Super App'

Uber continues to build beyond ride-sharing and food delivery. A multi-year partnership with Delta allows travelers to link their Uber and SkyMiles accounts, earning miles on qualifying rides and Uber Eats orders. This move strengthens Uber's integration into travel services.

Uber's advertising business has also become a major revenue stream, already generating over $1 billion annually. A larger presence in digital advertising could drive high-margin revenue that investors may not be fully pricing in.

Robust Free Cash Flow

Uber forecasts free cash flow of $8.5 billion for 2025, a 23% increase year-over-year. This financial strength supports share repurchases and reinvestment. Adjusted earnings are expected to reach $3.06 per share in 2025, with a projected 33% rise to $4.06 in 2026.

Bearish Case

Autonomous Vehicle Competition

Rising AV competition is one of the biggest threats to Uber's long-term position—and Tesla presents the bigger problem.

Waymo continues expanding, recently launching fully driverless rides across Los Angeles, operating 24/7 between Santa Monica and Downtown LA. It relies on automaker partnerships to supply vehicles, meaning it still depends on outside production. For Uber, this means Waymo is both a competitor and a potential supplier—if Uber secures the right partnerships, it could distribute Waymo's AV rides and stay relevant in an autonomous future.

Tesla, however, doesn't need Uber. Unlike Waymo, Tesla produces its own vehicles and plans to own and operate its own robo-taxi fleet. It is positioning itself to bypass Uber entirely, removing the need for a middleman. Tesla has applied for a permit to operate a ride-hailing service in California, initially with human drivers, as a step toward its autonomous ambitions. If Tesla moves quickly, Uber could be forced into a defensive position—negotiating for partnerships on less favorable terms or fighting an uphill battle against Tesla's fleet efficiency.

Compounding these challenges, General Motors recently announced it will end robotaxi development at its majority-owned, money-losing Cruise business, citing the considerable time and resources needed to scale the business, along with an increasingly competitive robotaxi market. This underscores the volatility in the AV industry and highlights Uber's dependence on external technology partners for autonomous driving capabilities. Without in-house AV technology, Uber remains at the mercy of external developments, limiting its control over the future of its autonomous services.

Macroeconomic Risks

Economic downturns could cut into demand for ride-hailing and food delivery. Broader market weakness could also mean increased volatility for Uber's stock, which has historically been more volatile than the S&P 500.

Regulatory Challenges

Uber continues to face legal and regulatory headwinds. A UK case regarding VAT on private-hire services outside London could impact fare structures and operational costs, creating additional pressure on profitability.

Operational Hurdles

Uber recently abandoned its $950 million bid to acquire Delivery Hero's Foodpanda business in Taiwan due to regulatory issues, signaling potential challenges in scaling its global footprint.

Bottom Line

LikeFolio data shows Uber usage is resilient at the moment—monthly active app users are rising, and web visits have turned positive.

But Uber's long-term upside depends on how well it navigates the autonomous driving shift. Right now, that's still unclear.