LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Core inflation came in hotter than expected in February, rising 2.8% year over year and 0.4% month over month. 

This measure, known as core PCE, strips out food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures and tracks what consumers actually spend, including adjustments for changes in behavior like switching to cheaper products. 

While headline PCE inflation (which includes all items) came in at 2.5%, matching expectations, the core reading suggests price pressures remain persistent. That makes it harder for the Fed to justify cutting interest rates soon.

Consumer spending increased 0.4% in February, a solid gain but slightly below the 0.5% forecast. Personal income jumped 0.8%, doubling expectations, which gave households more flexibility—but some of that extra income went into savings. The personal saving rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since June 2024, hinting that consumers may be growing more cautious.

For investors, the data signals that inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% goal. Combined with steady income and spending, this reduces the urgency for rate cuts and could keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

This reading alongside growing uncertainty around potential tariffs, triggered a pullback in markets after a strong start to the week. Investors are now looking ahead to April 2, when the White House is expected to unveil details of new trade measures.

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio in the last week through close on Thursday, March 27:

Infinite Hold Update

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla is on track to end a 9-week losing streak, with shares up nearly 6% for the week despite a pullback Friday. The company will report first-quarter vehicle deliveries on April 2, with Wall Street estimates ranging from 345,000 to 380,000 units. While that’s below the 387,000 delivered in Q1 2024, much of the decline appears to be priced in after a 42% drop since mid-December.

Bitcoin: Bitcoin traded lower following news that Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on automotive imports, reigniting inflation concerns. While the tariffs are not directly tied to crypto markets, traders fear they could slow economic growth and weigh on risk-on assets. 

Separately, Trump Media (DJT) surged after announcing a planned ETF launch with Crypto.com, featuring crypto exposure including Bitcoin and Cronos. The ETFs will be distributed through Crypto.com, with Truth Social leading the brand rollout.

This week also saw GameStop (GME) announce that its board had approved changes to the company’s investment policy allowing it to add bitcoin as an asset. Then on Thursday, GameStop shared its plans to raise $1.3 billion to buy bitcoin. GameStop’s addition of bitcoin is a sign that major corporations are embracing crypto.

Andy talked about this in depth on this week’s Founder’s Call – you can check it out below!

Amazon (AMZN): AMZN shares are ending the week mostly flat. However, we did see some AI-specific updates roll through:

Amazon is currently testing two generative AI tools. Interests AI lets users describe what they’re looking for in their own words, like “coffee brewing gadgets” or “books about persistence for kids,” and returns curated product results. Health AI offers general wellness guidance and product suggestions. Both features are live in beta on Amazon’s app and website.

They are part of a broader effort to integrate AI across Amazon’s retail and healthcare services. These tools will eventually connect to Alexa+, a next-gen voice assistant that can handle more complex tasks. Alexa Plus is set to launch in the U.S. in the coming weeks, starting with Echo Show devices. It will be free for Prime members and cost $19.99 per month for others. This marks Amazon’s first move to directly monetize its voice assistant platform.

On the ecommerce front, we are seeing nice traction in Amazon’s Spring Sale (currently underway) with search interest trending significantly higher than last year. This could provide the boost Amazon was looking for to end the first quarter. 

Portfolio Update

We’re taking a different approach to this week’s portfolio update as we cap off Q1. 

Our top plays YTD include: 

• Stride (LRN): +20%

• Dutch Bros (BROS): +15%

• Aurora Innovation (AUR): +9% 

Meanwhile, ad plays including The Trade Desk (TTD), Viant (DSP), and Magnite (MGNI) have struggled amid ad-spending uncertainty. 

Heading into Q2, we’re planning to take some gains and remove some risk from our portfolio. Watch out for a full portfolio review next week.