LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Markets experienced a volatile week, balancing renewed trade optimism against…politicized drama.

President Trump's announcement of a "very good" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping sparked hopes for easing trade tensions, particularly regarding rare earth exports. 

But let’s be honest, we were all watching the X exchange between Musk and Trump (more on that later).

The S&P 500 managed to extend its rally, now up 20% from its April lows, driven by strong Q1 earnings and renewed investor interest in AI and Big Tech sectors. Yet, the market remains just below its February highs – cautious optimism amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in April to $61.6 billion, the lowest since December 2023, due to a record 19.8% drop in imports as businesses adjusted to new tariff policies. 

While this contraction could boost Q2 GDP, economists warn that depleted inventories and potential import rebounds may offset gains in the coming months…we’ll see.

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio in the last week through close on Thursday, June 5:

Infinite Hold Update 

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla (TSLA) is rebounding today, after a sharp 14% decline on Thursday that erased over $150 billion in market capitalization.

The downturn followed a public dispute between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump over the "Big Beautiful Bill," which Musk criticized for its potential to significantly increase the national deficit.

Bottom line: we aren’t panicking, we’re going to let the dust settle on this one. 

Our long-term vision on $TSLA as one of the top players in AI, robotics, autonomous driving, (drones?! as suggested by Morgan Stanley) remains unchanged. 

Bitcoin: We noticed 2 major Bitcoin tailwinds this week:

First: M2 money supply reached a new record of $21.86 trillion in April, up 4.44% from a year ago.  When M2 expands, Bitcoin has followed with massive upside. 

M2 growth = more dollars chasing assets. When the money supply expands, more capital enters the system. That capital tends to flow into equities, real estate, and increasingly, Bitcoin.

Second: U.S. national debt has now surpassed $36.2 trillion, with new borrowing projected to accelerate into the second half of the year. 

Bitcoin’s supply is fixed. It doesn’t dilute like fiat. As debt accelerates and the dollar weakens in real terms, Bitcoin becomes a stronger store of value.

Amazon (AMZN): Check out this AMZN chart that caught our eye…

We put out a piece earlier this week about the impact of AI on search…and ultimately advertising. Check it out if you missed it. 

Amazon is likely to be a beneficiary of shifting ad spend onto retail platforms.

Portfolio Update

Oscar (OSCR): +13%

Oscar Health shares jumped on Thursday after new reports pointed to upcoming Medicare Advantage cuts under the Trump administration. Investors saw this as a relative win for Oscar, which focuses on ACA plans and has little exposure to the Medicare market under review. The stock had been under pressure for several sessions despite posting 55% profit growth and 42% revenue growth in Q1. The policy shift gave traders a reason to re-engage with a name that looks increasingly well-positioned as regulatory risk builds for its larger peers.

Robinhood (HOOD): +9%

Robinhood is pushing higher this week ahead of the S&P 500 rebalancing announcement, which is scheduled for release after today’s market close at 5:15 p.m. ET. Traders are positioning for potential inclusion, which would force large index funds to buy shares and drive additional demand. We’re already up more than 275% on this position and see more upside ahead. 

Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $81, citing growth in assets under custody, rising trading volumes, and higher margin balances. Robinhood’s May update confirms that strength, with AUC reaching $250 billion (up 85% YoY) and more than 3 million users now on the waitlist for its upcoming credit card.

On our end, consumer engagement and new customer acquisition is building, too. HOOD web visits are up +20% on a 90-day Moving Average and +31% on a tighter, 30-day Moving Average. Very nice. 

Oklo (OKLO): -10%

No major news this week from Oklo. We see this as a normal pullback following a tremendous nuclear rally. Our OKLO position is already one of the top-performing in our portfolio, up ~90% under 2 months. We expect some volatility as nuclear plans are clearly laid out. Important to note META’s tap in of Constellation Energy (CEG) to fuel its AI ambition is bullish for the nuclear sector at large, and a key element of our investment thesis. Data centers need power, and we believe OKLO remains well positioned to benefit long-term.

Hims (HIMS): not a major mover, but major news hit this week! 

Hims is expanding its reach across Europe with the acquisition of ZAVA, a UK-based telehealth provider that strengthens its platform and accelerates international growth.

It is also the most heavily shorted stock in the S&P Midcap 400 – what gives? Data shows growth is still positive, but does denote some weakening following the company’s GLP-1 pull and mainly in “For Hers” offering. We’re monitoring, but it’s not flashing red right now by any means.

Aurora Innovation (AUR): accumulation opportunity at hand?

The stock is down -18% in the last month; 

AUR put a driver back in its autonomous truck per request of PACCAR and this is being circulated by a research group with a short position. 

Our data doesn't show any major change, with unique visits up +30% in April. Pullbacks like these could be great accumulation opportunities for investors with a long-term vision.