LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

We just capped off an enormous week for earnings, with major swings in both directions. Our small-cap portfolio names drastically overperformed our large cap holdings.

US stocks fell Friday as investors reacted to weak economic signals and the threat of new tariffs.

Consumer sentiment dropped to 67.8, a seven-month low, as concerns over potential tariffs drove inflation fears. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.3% from 3.3%, the highest since November 2023.

The labor market showed mixed signals. The economy added 143,000 jobs in January, missing forecasts of 170,000, but the unemployment rate dipped to 4.0%. Harsh weather, including California wildfires and winter storms, contributed to the slowdown. However, revised data for November and December showed stronger hiring than initially reported, suggesting labor market resilience.

Here’s an overview of the biggest movers in our portfolio through the close on Thursday, Feb. 6:

Infinite Hold Stocks

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla shares traded lower this week as investors pondered the impact of Musk’s political activities on Tesla’s underlying performance, and processed sluggish sales in China. Our bullish outlook remains unchanged – the growth opportunities at hand when considering positive traction in robotics (Optimus) and autonomy are enormous.

Amazon (AMZN): Amazon delivered strong Q4 earnings, surpassing expectations with EPS of $1.86 and revenue of $187.79 billion. Despite cautious guidance due to foreign exchange headwinds, net income nearly doubled, and operating margins expanded to 11.3%. AWS revenue grew 19%, outpacing last year’s growth rate, while advertising sales climbed 18%, reinforcing Amazon’s strength in high-margin segments. We remain bullish as Amazon aggressively invests in AI and cloud infrastructure, driving long-term profitability, while disciplined cost management continues to improve margins.

Bitcoin: Bitcoin rebounded on Friday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report eased concerns about aggressive Federal Reserve policy. Initially pressured by weak risk sentiment following Trump’s tariff announcement, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 before pulling back. Despite short-term volatility, the cryptocurrency remains significantly higher over the past year, fueled by growing mainstream adoption and optimism around a more lenient regulatory stance under Trump. We remain bullish.

Portfolio Updates

Accuray (ARAY): +20%
Accuray delivered a strong Q2, with revenue up 8% to $116.2 million and net income of $2.5 million, a sharp turnaround from last year’s $9.6 million loss. Product revenue jumped 19%, driven by demand for the Tomo C System, which provides precise helical radiation therapy, and the Helix system, designed for high-efficiency cancer treatment in emerging markets. Operating expenses fell 7%, boosting profitability, and adjusted EBITDA surged to $9.6 million from $2.0 million. Accuray raised its full-year outlook, now projecting revenue between $463 million and $475 million and adjusted EBITDA of $28.5 million to $31.0 million.

PaySafe (PSFE): +18%
PSFE stock surged following reports that the company is exploring a potential sale after receiving takeover interest. The company is reportedly working with a financial advisor to evaluate its options, which may include selling non-core assets prior to a full sale, but has not formally commented on the report to confirm or deny.

Blackberry (BB): +16%
Earlier this week BlackBerry completed the sale of its Cylance cybersecurity unit to Arctic Wolf for $160 million in cash and approximately 5.5 million Arctic Wolf shares. This move allows BlackBerry to focus on its core businesses while reducing exposure to a division that was not meeting financial expectations. The company plans to use the proceeds from the sale, along with its positive cash flow, to repurchase shares, aiming to enhance shareholder value.

Our bullish position from July has now more than doubled, up +110%, far outpacing our initial estimate of +50% in the next 2 years. 

Magnite (MGNI): +11%
Magnite shares are up significantly this week (surging today) after securing a programmatic ad partnership with X, giving advertisers automated access to X’s ad inventory. This deal significantly expands Magnite’s reach, bringing in new demand while helping X rebuild relationships with major brands. With X aggressively recovering ad revenue lost after Musk’s takeover, Magnite stands to benefit as a key intermediary, driving higher ad volume and reinforcing its position as a top independent sell-side platform. This partnership strengthens Magnite’s long-term growth prospects by increasing transaction flow and cementing relationships with advertisers seeking brand-safe, scalable digital ad placements.

Hyatt (H): +5%
No major news from Hyatt this week, but the travel leader continues to gain momentum thanks to its leadership in the luxury segment. We featured Hyatt in detail a few weeks ago, highlighting its strong performance vs. lodging peers. Our bullish outlook remains, and we expect continued momentum on all fronts.

Crocs (CROX): -6%
Crocs is navigating tariff pressures with 28% of its products sourced from China, but the company’s international growth remains strong. While HeyDude’s weakness led to a lowered full-year outlook, LikeFolio data shows increased web traffic for the brand, signaling potential consumer interest that could drive a turnaround. Crocs reports earnings on February 13, and signs of HeyDude stabilization or continued international expansion could fuel bullish momentum – that’s what we’ll be listening for.

Snapchat (SNAP): -5%
Snap delivered a strong Q4, with revenue up 14% to $1.56 billion and daily active users reaching 453 million, exceeding expectations. The company swung to a profit after a loss in the same quarter last year, signaling improvements in both ad efficiency and user engagement. While shares dipped after the report due to cautious Q1 guidance, LikeFolio data indicates continued traction in Snap’s advertising business, which could drive upside as the company scales its ad platform and capitalizes on TikTok uncertainty.