LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Is the Fed finally breaking its stance?

Major indices rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged, “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

He added, much to naysayers’ dismay, that estimated tariff impact was overstated: "a reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived” or cause a one-time shift in prices.

The speech comes after drastic downward revisions in most recent jobs report.

Polymarket odds for a September rate cut surged after Powell’s speech, as did Bitcoin.

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio through close on Thursday, August 21:

Infinite Hold Update 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin jumped right after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks today. Yields fell, the dollar softened, and risk appetite improved, which lifted crypto immediately.

For context this week, spot bitcoin ETFs saw sizable net outflows into the event, and traders were positioned cautiously ahead of the speech, so the macro surprise helped trigger a quick move higher. 

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla consumer-facing data is showing serious signs of improvement – finally!

Digital demand is surging higher, up double digits in July, as consumers rush to take advantage of tax credits before they expire Sept. 30. 

To give scale, in the height of Tesla's brand image decline, visits were trending -21% YoY. This has flipped, now trending +18% YoY -- albeit from some pull forward effect, but it does seem the brand is coming out of the political weeds that plagued it earlier this year.

When we dig into the model level, Tesla Model Y demand looks hot, bolstered by a model refresh featuring more room and a "proper" third row of seats among other style upgrades. 

The new model received ~40,000 orders in a single day after rolling into showrooms in China.

The downside? Elon has warned this popular model may not make it to the US (not slated for production stateside until the end of next year). 

The reason? Musk is so bullish on self-driving he thinks the model could be obsolete by the time it hits American roads.

If he's right, that's tremendously bullish for Tesla's robotaxi. If he's wrong, this model will likely fly out of dealership lots as families lean into the extra space.

In the meantime, China is emerging as a budding pocket of strength for TSLA, with Model 3 sales outselling a popular local model in weekly sales for the first time since January.

At large, Tesla is working to improve its premium brand label in the US. After cybertruck proved less popular than expected, Musk is raising prices. The high-end Cyberbeast will now run just under $115k (vs. just under $100k) and will feature a Luxe package that includes FSD. Some say this is a test by TSLA to improve FSD adoption. 

This premiumization aligns with trends we see right now -- mainly, the continued bifurcation of the US consumer. High-end brands are winning. 

As recent headlines focus on vehicle sales, Tesla's robotaxi ambitions are still rolling. The autonomous ride hailing service is reportedly hiring autopilot vehicle operators in Chicago as the service expands.

ARK says robotaxi could drive 90% of TSLA value by 2030.

Bottom line: Robotaxi is just getting rolling and we expect to be a tremendous growth lever. The brand seems to be in major image repair mode -- bleeding has stopped. We haven't even talked about Optimus implications. Bullish.

Amazon (AMZN): Amazon is finishing the week mostly flat after a mid-week sell-off alongside other big tech. We’re watching some signs of sector rotation. NVDA earnings next week will be very telling.

Portfolio Update

We saw a broader market pullback and tempered investor risk appetite through Thursday, which dinged some of our high-growth names like SoundHound (SOUN), Aurora (AUR), and Reddit (RDDT) – all of which logged nice runs in the weeks prior.

We do see signs of recovery today following Fed remarks that have left traders hopeful. 

All of the stocks previously mentioned are handily in the green mid-day Friday.

We DO expect some volatility this month and even into September as seasonal trading trends take hold. 

We’ve touched on this before. 

We’ll continue to monitor for accumulation opportunities, especially in stocks where consumer-facing sentiment remains high. 

We’re also watching for our next portfolio addition. 

Megan touched on one of the largest MegaTrends on our radar on this week’s LikeFolio call – you can check it out here if you missed it.