LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

We’re switching up the weekly roundup this week ahead of the 4th of July holiday. 

We received a client request asking for a checkup on one of our favorite categories: footwear. 

Specifically, ONON, DECK and our beloved CROX. When our team dug into the data, they suggested we add another contender to this list – we think you’ll see why…

At a high level, ONON with its premium running shoe is still the hottest brand around. 

But we do denote a bit of a slowdown in demand for ONON and DECK when we tighten up the moving average, while BIRK and CROX remain about the same. 

When we consider stock performance alongside consumer demand, DECK looks a bit oversold, CROX appears to be priced about right, and ONON (while deserving its overperformance) may be setting up for a loss of momentum. 

The major sleeper at play here: Birkenstock (BIRK).

When we asked ChatGPT for summer shoe recommendations, the Birkenstock Arizona sandal topped the list:

Social media mentions also confirm consumers are clamoring for a pair, podiatrist recommended:

Bottom line: if we had to pick a frontrunner, we’d bet on BIRK.

• BIRK is the quiet outperformer in this category. Web visit strength has remained steady even as competitors saw short-term deceleration. With pricing power, expanding DTC traction, and a strong fashion crossover tailwind, Birkenstock may offer one of the cleanest long-side setups into the second half of the year.

• ONON has earned its spot as the fastest-growing name in premium performance footwear, but momentum may be peaking. Consumer demand remains elevated on a year-over-year basis, yet recent traffic data shows a clear tapering when viewed through a shorter-term lens. The stock has outperformed this year, but valuation now assumes continued acceleration that may be difficult to sustain.

• DECK continues to execute well across both HOKA and UGG, but our real-time data confirms a mild cooling in consumer engagement over the past several weeks. That slowdown contrasts with a stock that has pulled back materially, creating a potential setup for reentry—especially if demand stabilizes heading into back-to-school.

• CROX has garnered headlines recently amid its sustained pullback, fresh redesigns, and Vietnam tariff relief (it makes about half of its shoes in Vietnam). Unfortunately we still have forward-looking web visits trending down by double digits. Not enough confidence to pull the trigger quite yet. 

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio through close on Wednesday, July 2:

Infinite Hold Update 

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla reported 384,122 deliveries in Q2, landing in line with the 385,000 consensus and coming in well above internal expectations that had dropped to 360,000 or lower. The stock moved above $316 in early trading, confirming that the market is focused on what comes next. 

You can see the clear disparity in headlines vs. stock reaction in our X feed below. 

Our high level take: The Robotaxi rollout is already live in Austin and is giving Tesla a much needed brand boost among consumers. 

This autonomous network is the foundation for a recurring revenue model that could transform Tesla from a premium automaker into a mobility platform – and why the stock commands such a high price.

We explained why the upside from here could rival our original 19X Tesla call in The Most Important Product Launch Since the iPhone.

Bitcoin: Bitcoin is trading above $109k after briefly dipping below $106k earlier this week. On July 1, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $342 million in outflows, ending a 15-day inflow streak. The majority of withdrawals came from Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK, and Bitwise funds. Bitcoin’s price has remained stable despite the shift in ETF flows. However, on-chain data confirms that retail participation is still low, with declining small-wallet activity and limited engagement from new buyers. This rally is being driven by institutional demand and long-term holders.

Andy explored the broader context and why this setup mirrors previous power transitions in our latest update: When Kings Lose Control.

Amazon (AMZN): Amazon installed its 1 millionth robot in June.

CEO Andy Jassy confirmed the milestone in a June 25 letter, adding that over 100,000 mobile robots were deployed in the past year. According to Jassy, robots now perform work equivalent to hundreds of thousands of people across Amazon’s fulfillment network. That automation is helping Amazon scale efficiently: the company reported $18.4 billion in operating income in Q1, nearly double the $9.1 billion reported a year earlier. Robotics remain one of the company’s most important levers for expanding margins while reducing delivery times and limiting labor cost growth.

Portfolio Update

Robinhood (HOOD): All-Time High – again

Our Robinhood position officially crossed into 5X territory this week after the company launched tokenized stocks in the EU. Andy and Landon broke down the psychology of letting this winner run in this week’s Founders Call, including how we decide to close positions. 

Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): +18% 

Bitcoin miner Marathon finally saw some positive traction from the market this week, and for good reason. In its June 2025 production update, MARA reported it now holds 49,940 BTC – a milestone that puts it in second only to Strategy (MSTR) among publicly-traded companies with Bitcoin on their balance sheet.  

Source: bitbo.io/treasuries 

Dutch Bros (BROS): Overperforming Peers

We haven’t touched on Dutch Bros in a while, but the speedy coffee shop is continuing to beat peers in forward-looking consumer interest. Monthly data shows that BROS logged the highest digital traffic in company history in May, and real-time data shows continued market share steal vs. larger and smaller peers. We remain bullish. 

Magnite (MGNI): Closed our Position

When Magnite surged to 52-week highs earlier this week, we made an unexpected move – and sold all of our shares for a hefty +92% profit. We typically like to hold winners for a year or more. But we were tracking something the rest of the market may not yet realize. Forward-looking demand was degrading – and fast. Magnite web visits dropped off -40% in May, the first time we’ve seen growth flip red in two years. 

We were ahead of this ad winner, and we’re getting out at just the right time. 

If you’re not already a MegaTrends member and want to be on the receiving end of calls like this, you can learn more here.

Oscar Health (OSCR): -19%

Shares of OSCR plunged this week as President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ made its way through Congress.

Barclays initiated coverage with an Underweight rating. The downgrade cited regulatory risks tied to CMS audits and subsidy volatility, echoing broader sector pressure after Centene pulled guidance. But Oscar’s business is built for this exact environment. In Q1, the company posted 42% revenue growth and added over 2 million members, up 41% year over year. It also delivered $275 million in net income, its first profitable quarter on record. Medicaid could force millions to seek new coverage. Oscar’s direct-to-consumer ACA platform, full-stack technology, and operating leverage make it one of the best-positioned insurers to absorb that demand. We view this pullback as an accumulation opportunity.