LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Here’s a breakdown of the biggest takeaways from the LikeFolio research desk through Thursday, Nov. 13:

Summary

• DON’T MISS: Andy breaks down Bitcoin and MSTR live on Schwab Network

• Founders Call: Is the Market Mispricing Fear? 

• Infinite Hold Update: Tesla’s creative approach to get consumers behind the wheel

Swan Says: Andy breaks down the Fire Drill in Bitcoin and Proxy Plays $BTC $MSTR

Andy’s appearance today on the Schwab Network was a can’t miss – watch below:

Bitcoin Update: Is It Time to Panic? Remember to Zoom Out

Bitcoin's dipping hard right now—from $126k down to $96k—and it feels like panic mode for a lot of folks staring at charts and checking their crypto wallets.

But it's an important time to take a breath and zoom out a bit.

This asset is still up approximately 50% since before the election a year ago.

And volatility is no stranger to Bitcoin investors.

We've seen these kinds of pullbacks in Bitcoin's history; they're part of what makes it a high-reward asset, but they test short-term traders.

Recent market data shows institutional interest, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting inflows on certain days even amid dips, bolstering its resilience.

If you're investing with a long-term horizon, this isn't a signal to sell, it's a reminder that Bitcoin remains a very strong performer overall.

On our end, we have our eyes on the multi-year trend. We wouldn’t be surprised to see more near-term volatility as fear takes hold. 

But our underlying thesis hasn’t changed.

Is Strategy (MSTR) Doomed? It Depends on How You See Bitcoin

Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—is under pressure as Bitcoin weakens.

Its market cap now essentially matches the value of its Bitcoin holdings around $200 per share.

Gone is the significant premium investors once paid for this as the primary stock market proxy to Bitcoin.

The landscape has shifted: From 2020 to 2023, Strategy held that unique position.

But now, Bitcoin ETFs and other treasury companies are competing for the same investment dollars.

While the overall pool is growing, Strategy's share of attention has diminished.

Recent reports highlight how firms like BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust have drawn billions in assets, intensifying this competition.

That said, is the company doomed? 

Not necessarily. 

It comes down to Michael Saylor's forward-thinking approach, which has often been ahead of Wall Street. Recall August 2020, when Strategy announced its Bitcoin pivot: The stock was at $14. By December 2022, amid crypto winter, it returned to $14.

Saylor's vision is playing out again.

Strategy isn't merely a Bitcoin holder. The company is evolving into a central bank-like entity in the digital money space.

It controls roughly 4-5% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined.

That's ownership of a substantial portion of the world's hardest money supply.

Consider this analogy: It's like backing an organization acquiring prime Manhattan real estate. They're using debt to expand and offering dividends to lenders. 

If the underlying asset—Bitcoin—appreciates, future obligations become manageable, even negligible.

But if it doesn't, the leverage amplifies risks, including volatility and debt servicing challenges.

Products like STRC, with its 10.5% tax-deferred dividend, function as a money market alternative for those who believe in Bitcoin's role.

Amid current market conditions, Strategy's debt levels are under scrutiny, but analysts note their convertible notes provide flexibility through lower interest expenses and no financial covenants if Bitcoin rebounds.

Ultimately, you have to choose your perspective.

If you view Bitcoin as integral to a new global digital monetary system, Strategy is years ahead.

This dip could be a potential value opportunity—a levered exposure at a reasonable ratio to Bitcoin's value, provided you can handle the swings.

If it's just a speculative bet to you, then yes, it's binary and risky.

Based on our data, we're bullish on Bitcoin long-term, so we see potential upside for Strategy here.

But success requires conviction in the foundational thesis.

Founders Call: Is the Market Mispricing Fear?

Fear keeps climbing across markets and headlines. We just discussed this in the crypto space, but its palpable across the market at large.

The latest University of Michigan reading paints the picture of a very stressed consumer: 

On our end, this read feels a bit extreme – consumer sentiment is lower right now than March of 2020? 

What gives?

Let’s break it down:

The survey method in general explains a large part of it. A phone format pulls in a narrow slice of the population – about 500 interviews. The sample tends to lean older, and more representative of individuals highly engaged in news and politics. 

That tilt produces heavier scoring and sharper reactions than the current retail environment supports. 

LikeFolio data reveals a different take.

You can watch this week’s Founders call, where we discuss what we’re watching below:

Demand Data Suggests the Consumer isn’t about to Fall of a Cliff

Our readings show strength as shoppers enter peak shopping weeks. 

Traffic is rising across apparel, beauty, footwear, electronics and department stores. 

Buyers continue to browse and purchase at a pace that aligns with a stable setup for the season. 

Here are our three main takeaways ahead of the holiday blitz:

1. High earners will carry the season

The upper tier accounts for half of all consumer spend.

Their engagement remains strong. Rising traffic across premium and upper mid tier brands confirms that influence across categories.

We saw this play out in ONON this week. 

2. Digital traffic continues to build into November

The most important holiday-driven categories are gaining momentum over the past 30 days.

Momentum continues to widen across retailers across the board as shoppers prepare for holiday purchases. You can also see noted overperformance in “high-end” brands, as expected.

This environment creates selective opportunity if volatility pushes equities lower.

3.  Holiday demand is stronger than the headlines suggest

Dillard’s (DDS) stock surge higher this week is a great example of a market reality check. 

The company just delivered a +3% comp with firm profitability and consistent shopper flow through the quarter.

We expect more of these reality checks as the season goes on. 

For instance – Shopify (SHOP) stands out as a stock Wall Street is getting wrong. 

Digital traffic is climbing on a steady path while the equity trades sideways. That type of divergence sits at the center of our process. AI driven tools inside the platform raise merchant activity and that lift shows up clearly in our data.

The growing divergence reeks of opportunity for long-term investors.

Bottom line: we listen to consumers and what they are actually doing. We think sentiment may not be as dark as headlines suggest -- which could result in tremendous plays for investors.

We'll be tracking this data in real time as consumers shop. 

Black Friday is just around the corner and is VERY revealing. If consumers show up, we'll tell you. 

And if they don't, we'll tell you that too.

Infinite Hold Update 

Tesla: New Rental Push Arrives as EV Sales Whipsaw

This week Tesla launched a short-term rental program this week with rates starting near $60 per day. 

Rentals include Supercharging and FSD access, along with a small purchase credit if a renter buys within a week. The rollout targets shoppers who want hands-on time with an EV before committing.

The timing lines up with a sharp pullback in U.S. EV sales. After the $7,500 federal tax credit expired, nationwide EV sales fell 53% in October. EVs accounted for 6% of monthly new-vehicle sales, down from 12.9% in September. This was a broad industry reaction tied to incentives.

J.D. Power’s new data shows the underlying demand picture looks very different. 94% of current EV owners say they plan to choose another EV for their next purchase or lease. 59.7% of active new-vehicle shoppers say they are likely to consider an EV, and 24.2% are “very likely” to consider one, the highest level since January. Lower running costs remain the top driver of loyalty, with 86% of EV owners reporting cheaper ownership than gas vehicles.

A large pipeline of EV shoppers is also approaching. 243,000 franchise EV leases end in 2026, and 62% of returning EV lessees this year went straight into another EV. This group represents one of the most reliable sources of future demand.

Tesla’s rental program makes sense in this environment: get as many consumers behind one of its wheels as possible.

Amazon: AI Tools Roll Out for Enterprise Customers

Amazon Business introduced new AI-driven procurement tools this week at its Reshape 2025 event, marking one of the company’s biggest steps into automated purchasing and spend management for enterprise customers. 

The tools include an AI assistant for procurement questions, savings recommendations based on purchasing behavior, and monitoring features that flag unusual spending patterns. The goal is to reduce friction in B2B buying and help large organizations control costs with fewer manual processes.

This launch comes as Amazon continues to push deeper into enterprise software, an area where AWS already drives most of the company’s operating income. Expanding automation inside Amazon Business gives the company more ways to lock in corporate customers and widen its reach beyond traditional retail.

Industry reception has been positive because procurement remains one of the slowest-moving, least-automated areas in enterprise operations. Giving companies tools that handle repetitive tasks and surface savings opportunities positions Amazon Business as a more essential partner for large organizations.