LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

The August jobs report confirmed a slowdown in labor market momentum: employers added only 22,000 jobs, well below expectations, with prior months revised lower and unemployment rising to 4.3%. 

Odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting continue to rise:

Why?

• Slower hiring means weaker consumer demand ahead. With payrolls nearly flat and unemployment edging higher, households have less income growth to fuel discretionary spending. That pressures retailers, travel, and other consumer-driven names.

• Weak jobs data forces the Fed’s hand. Rate cuts become more likely, which lowers borrowing costs and supports housing, utilities, and other rate-sensitive sectors.

• Job growth is narrowing. Gains in healthcare, leisure, and retail are offset by losses in manufacturing, trade, and government, leaving the economy reliant on a handful of consumer-driven sectors while core production industries weaken.

On the earnings front, we saw a major move higher from American Eagle (AEO) following its highly successful Sydney Sweeney “Good Jeans” campaign. 

Megan broke down how we leveraged real-time consumer demand to predict this earnings move – and how we also used the same process to identify $GAP’s move lower last week:

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio through close on Thursday, Sept. 4:

Infinite Hold Update 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin held near $111K this week as traders shifted into BTC, lifting its market share to 59% while smaller tokens lost ground. The main driver was macro: August’s weak jobs report raised the odds of Fed rate cuts in September, a setup that typically supports Bitcoin by loosening liquidity. Inflows into crypto funds stayed strong at $2.5B, and ETFs drew fresh demand midweek, pointing to steady institutional interest. 

Bitcoin is consolidating above $110K with steady inflows and a Fed tailwind, with a September rate cut (or not) serving as a potential catalyst.

Tesla (TSLA): This week Tesla announced progress on robotaxis, a new $1T Musk pay plan, and potential xAI ties, all fuel for the company’s next growth phase.

• Robotaxis hit a new milestone in Austin. Tesla expanded its service area to roughly 170 square miles, now covering key locations like Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Giga Texas, and major freeways, with safety monitors repositioned from the passenger seat to the driver’s seat on highway routes. Road access comes via the public Robotaxi app, now live for iOS users on a waitlist basis.

  

• Musk pay plan goes to a vote. The board unveiled a new $1 trillion performance-based package to replace the $56B deal voided last year, with compensation tied to extreme goals like an $8.5T market cap and large-scale AI adoption. Shareholders will decide on November 6.
  

• AI integration deepens. A separate proposal would let Tesla invest directly in Musk’s AI startup xAI, signaling a tighter link between Tesla’s platform and frontier AI development. Bullish.

Amazon (AMZN): Amazon will officially end its long-running Prime Invitee program on October 1, cutting off the ability for members to share free shipping with non-household users. 

The perk had been grandfathered in since 2015, when Amazon stopped allowing new invitees, but it’s now being shut down entirely. Impacted users can convert to their own Prime plan at a one-year discounted rate of $14.99, while future sharing will only be available through Amazon Family, which limits access to members of the same household. 

The move mirrors Netflix and Disney+ in cracking down on account sharing and is likely to boost subscriber counts.

Amazon also launched its first “Second Chance Deal Days” in Europe from September 3–9, offering discounts of up to 70% on refurbished tech and home items. The campaign, running ahead of October’s Prime Day, is designed to pull in budget-conscious shoppers and appeal to consumers looking for sustainable, lower-cost options.

On the enterprise side, AWS expanded its global footprint with a new region in New Zealand built on three availability zones. At the same time, Amazon added OpenAI models to Bedrock and SageMaker, giving its cloud customers direct access to generative AI tools and strengthening AWS’s position as businesses accelerate adoption of AI-powered services.

Portfolio Update

We captured nice moves to the upside this week in 2 stocks with healthcare exposure: Hims (HIMS) and Oscar (OSCR).

HIMS closed the week up 13% after a federal judge dismissed Eli Lilly’s lawsuit against Willow Health, a peer in the telehealth space. While Hims was not directly involved, the ruling confirmed that compounded GLP-1 medications prescribed under physician oversight remain legal, easing a major overhang for the sector and validating one of Hims’ key growth drivers.

The company continues to benefit from strong demand for affordable compounded semaglutide and tirzepatide, which remain central to its subscriber growth.

Looking forward, investor attention will turn to how Hims can broaden its platform beyond weight loss, with expansion into peptide therapies and testosterone treatments expected to provide additional catalysts in the second half of 2025.

OSCR closed the week up 10% as policy headlines and fresh institutional buying renewed optimism around its outlook. A federal bill introduced by House Republicans would extend ACA health subsidies past the midterms, a meaningful tailwind for Oscar given its core focus on Affordable Care Act individual-market plans. Subsidies directly support enrollment and member retention by keeping premiums affordable, making this legislation a potential catalyst for sustained growth.

On the ownership side, filings showed Magnetar Financial, PDT Partners, and Invesco increasing their stakes in Oscar Health, adding to confidence that the company’s model is gaining traction with large investors.