LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Here’s a breakdown of the biggest takeaways from the LikeFolio research desk through Thursday, Oct. 9:

Highlights:

• The Biggest Surprises of Q3 Earnings (So Far) – Consumers won’t quit! What that means for earnings season…

• Founders Call: 4 AI Stocks to Watch – OpenAI Usage spills the beans on actual usage

• Infinite Hold Update: Amazon Prime Week Results are in!

• Stock Spotlights: Nuclear, AI, and Healthcare are Hot — $AMD $HIMS $LEU $OKLO trade higher

The Biggest Surprises of Q3 Earnings (So Far) 

We’re still two Sundays away from the official Earnings Season Pass kickoff – the week when Netflix (NFLX) reports and earnings season starts on our end — but the pregame action is already giving us a peek into the state of the consumer. 

Early reporters like Delta (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Constellation Brands (STZ) are showing investors what’s working — and what might not — heading into Q3.

Here’s what our team is watching as the season gets underway, and the themes we expect to dominate this season:

1. Consumer Resilience Is the Surprise Story

Delta’s quarter is the clearest proof yet that consumer demand for travel — especially premium and corporate — is holding up. DAL reported adjusted EPS of $1.71 vs. ~$1.53 expected, and premium revenue jumped ~9% year over year. Meanwhile, revenue overall topped forecasts.

If people are still prioritizing flights, that’s a strong signal — even in sticky inflation and interest rate headwinds, consumers are choosing experiences. Airlines are early in Q3, but if they’re holding up, it offers confidence that sectors further down the chain (retail, delivery, hospitality) might also find room to surprise upward.

Name to watch: Hilton (HLT) — the cleanest read on business and premium travel demand. Corporate bookings and group travel remain above 2019 levels, with strong pricing power and high-margin international expansion reinforcing travel’s staying power through year-end.

2. Low Expectations = Easy Overperformance

When estimates are weak, it takes less to “beat” — and corporations who manage cost, pricing, and inventory can clear that bar. 

Investors appear willing to bet on names trading near lows.

PepsiCo, for example, delivered just enough to beat on revenue and EPS, largely thanks to pricing and international volume stabilization. Its margins held up despite headwinds in input costs. That doesn’t scream “booming consumer,” but it does show companies can lean into pricing discipline and still deliver.

STZ leaned on volume and mix in beer, delivering roughly 2% organic growth in its core segment — largely volume-driven rather than pricing-led. That kind of performance in beverages (an “everyday product” staple) hints that certain consumer categories still have margin for growth, even outside discretionary goods – and was a noted improvement vs. last quarter. 

Name to watch: Starbucks (SBUX) — the stock sits near one-year lows heading into its next print, and management’s new high-protein menu gives it room to outperform expectations if traffic stabilizes.

3. Margin Discipline and Cost Control Are Front of Mind

Beats aren’t just happening because of demand; they’re happening because companies are getting smarter about how they run the business. The leaders this quarter will be those who:

• Double down on best sellers while cutting weak, low-volume SKUs that clog up the system.

• Target cost savings surgically, closing inefficient plants or routes rather than slashing everything at once.

• Hold expenses steady, so any future sales growth drops straight to the bottom line.

PepsiCo’s Q3 call was a masterclass in this kind of operational control. 

Management confirmed that the company is “cutting the long tail” of tiny overlapping SKUs to streamline production and improve fill rates, and that they’re “rationalizing warehouse infrastructure” and closing older, least-efficient manufacturing nodes across Frito-Lay.

CEO Ramon Laguarta said service levels are now back to 97–98%, productivity per employee has returned to pre-2023 highs, and those savings will carry into 2026 as margins expand across beverages and snacks. It’s a textbook example of how to defend profits without relying on pricing alone.

Name to watch: Five Below (FIVE) — its merchandising flexibility and cost discipline have helped protect margins despite cautious shoppers, making it a standout among value retailers heading into the holidays.

Bonus Theme: Premium Brands are Holding Up Best

The consumer who’s still spending is often the higher-income group. 

DAL’s premium revenue rising 9% while main-cabin revenue declined 4% is a classic case. People cut back on frills but not entirely — they trade down first, but sacrifice less in experiences they value.

That suggests that brands and platforms serving mid-to-upper tiers may fare better than deep-value or high-leverage ones. It also gives a plausible growth trajectory for products or services that can capture that premium “still willing to spend” segment.

Stock to watch: Deckers Outdoor (DECK) — its HOKA brand continues to deliver double-digit growth among affluent consumers, showing that comfort, quality, and brand cachet still command premium pricing even in a cautious spending environment.

Ugg interest is also ramping ahead of peak season.

Final Takeaway: This Is When the Fun Starts

The tone for Q3 earnings is set: consumers are still spending, the bar is low in many cases, and the market is rewarding execution. That’s the exact setup we love heading into Netflix and the first full week of reports.

Our team will be breaking down every major opportunity — from “better-than-feared” rallies to surprise winners — inside LikeFolio’s Earnings Season Pass.

 👉 Get access here

Founders Call: 4 AI Stocks to Watch

OpenAI might have just revealed something Wall Street has been trying to guess all year — which companies are actually using AI at massive scale.

A leaked “(and notably, unconfirmed) list shows the top 30 customers processing over 1 trillion tokens through OpenAI’s models. These are the businesses already weaving AI into how they operate, sell, and grow.

On this week’s Founders Call: AI Stock Watch — 4 Power Users to Keep an Eye On, Landon breaks down four names on that list that stand out for investors:

• One stock using AI to predict and fix major system issues before customers even notice

• One stock using AI to build entire online businesses in seconds

• One stock using AI to personalize learning for millions and scale new products faster than ever

• One stock falling behind as a fast-moving rival turns AI into the next creative revolution

These companies are already in OpenAI’s top token spenders — and they’re showing how real-world AI adoption can drive revenue, retention, and market dominance.

Watch below:

Infinite Hold Update 

Amazon (AMZN) Prime Big Deal Days Were (Are) a Hit

Amazon’s Oct. 7–8 Big Deal Days sparked a meaningful surge in consumer web traffic and engagement. 

Web visits rose roughly 21% over the prior five days, and search interest for “Prime deals” climbed about 12% YoY. 

Households averaged around $104 in spend, with many placing multiple orders. While essentials dominated purchase categories, roughly 30% of shoppers used the event to begin holiday gift buying—consistent with last year’s trend of consumers starting early. 

Satisfaction ticked slightly higher this year, with 58% of shoppers reporting they were “very” or “extremely” satisfied with the deals, an encouraging sign heading into the holiday season.

Other developments this week:

• Deal extensions maintain momentum. Select Prime offers remain live into the weekend, keeping shopping activity elevated beyond the two-day event.

• European logistics expansion. Amazon will invest €1B in Belgium through 2027 to expand infrastructure that supports faster same-day delivery across the region.

Investor takeaway: Prime Big Deal Days confirmed strong engagement and early holiday readiness among consumers. Amazon’s combination of high participation, steady satisfaction, and ongoing logistics expansion positions it well to sustain e-commerce strength through the end of the year.

Tesla (TSLA): New Standard Models Boost Affordability as FSD v14 Rolls Out

Tesla introduced new Standard versions of Model Y and Model 3 priced at $39,990 and $36,990. The trims keep core performance while dialing back premium extras to open a lower entry point for first-time EV buyers. This expands addressable demand at a time when many competitors are retreating from budget tiers.

LikeFolio data shows significant demand improvements continuing into October:

FSD v14 began rolling out this week with visible upgrades versus prior versions. 

Drivers can now set Arrival Options to choose where the car finishes a trip such as curbside, driveway, garage, or lot. A new Sloth speed profile enables more conservative behavior than Chill for dense traffic and tight streets. Driver profiles have a stronger impact on speed selection and lane choices. The right scroll wheel can adjust the active speed profile, improving on-the-fly control. Early user feedback has been overwhelmingly positive with reports of smoother turns, cleaner merges, and fewer mid-maneuver corrections. 

Additional iterations v14.2 and v14.3 are queued up next.

Also notable: the NHTSA opened an investigation into nearly 2.9 million Tesla vehicles with FSD, stemming from over 50 reports of red-light running, unsafe lane changes, and crashes. The probe highlights regulatory risk even as Tesla accelerates its autonomy push.

Investor takeaway: Affordability plus a better FSD experience creates two clear demand levers heading into late October. Lower entry pricing widens the funnel while v14 improvements deepen owner satisfaction and stickiness.

Bitcoin — Fresh Highs this Week (Until today)

Bitcoin surged to new records earlier this week before slipping to roughly $117K today amid a broader market pullback following Trump comments suggesting escalating tariffs with China. The retreat follows an extended run fueled by institutional inflows and steady retail participation, leaving trading activity elevated even as prices cool.

ETF demand remains a key support. Flows into spot Bitcoin funds stayed positive through the week, extending a streak of institutional accumulation that has helped stabilize prices near current levels. A softer dollar and renewed interest in alternative assets continue to reinforce the setup heading into Q4.

Investor takeaway: Bitcoin’s short-term pullback comes after a strong breakout, reflecting healthy consolidation rather than fatigue. Continued ETF inflows and favorable macro conditions position the asset for renewed upside once broader market pressure eases.

Reminder:

Stock Spotlights: Nuclear, AI, and Healthcare are Hot

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): +41%
AMD soared this week after announcing a major agreement with OpenAI to supply custom AI accelerators. The deal includes an option for OpenAI to acquire up to 160 million AMD shares, aligning long-term interests between the two companies. The partnership positions AMD as a central player in the AI compute supply chain and sparked a wave of analyst upgrades citing increased visibility into data center growth and margins.

Hims & Hers (HIMS): +11%
Hims & Hers rallied this week following leadership changes tied to its global expansion strategy. CEO Andrew Dudum confirmed that Mike Chi will become Chief Operating Officer, overseeing operations, product, marketing, and commercial divisions. He will replace Nader Kabbani, who transitions to an advisory role focused on new international initiatives effective November 2. Investors welcomed the move, with shares gaining nearly 6% on Tuesday as markets viewed the reshuffle as a signal of continued operational scaling and confidence in leadership depth.

Oklo (OKLO): +8%
Oklo climbed after Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a $175 price target. The analyst note cited strong positioning within the advanced nuclear reactor space and reaffirmed the company’s potential for early government and commercial contracts.

Centrus Energy (LEU): +8%
Centrus Energy extended its gains as investors maintained focus on domestic nuclear fuel supply. With operations expanding at its Piketon, Ohio enrichment facility and bipartisan support for HALEU funding continuing to build, the stock remains a key beneficiary of the U.S. nuclear energy revival.