LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

The S&P 500 is trending just positive on the week after an initial rally following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Fed Holds Rates Steady While Tariffs Complicate Inflation Outlook: The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25 to 4.50 percent and reaffirmed expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. Powell acknowledged that inflation has cooled recently—February’s CPI report showed core inflation slowing to 3.1 percent, its lowest level since April 2021. However, the Fed raised its full-year inflation forecast to 2.7 percent, citing trade policy as a key risk. Powell said tariffs are driving near-term price pressures and could delay further progress toward the Fed’s 2 percent target.

EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid Trade Negotiations: The European Union postponed its planned 50 percent tariffs on U.S. whiskey, motorboats, and motorcycles that were set to take effect April 1. Instead, all retaliatory measures—including additional tariffs on beer, poultry, and produce—are now scheduled for April 13. The delay allows time for further negotiations as the U.S. prepares to announce a new round of global tariffs on April 2.

Housing Market Surprise: Existing home sales rose 4.2 percent in February, defying expectations for a slowdown. The jump was driven by improved inventory and a slight pullback in mortgage rates, with 30-year fixed rates dipping to 6.65 percent by mid-March. It’s the strongest reading since May 2023 and suggests the housing market may be stabilizing after a year of sharp rate-driven declines.

At large, the market remains in a holding pattern, with investors watching for further clarity on trade policy and economic data heading into the second quarter.

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio in the last week through close on Thursday, March 20:

Infinite Hold Update

Tesla (TSLA): Shares are rallying to end the week, following a live-streamed all-hands meeting on X Thursday night.

LikeFolio data continues to show rising consumer interest in buying a tesla, the new Tesla Model Y, and in the brand in general despite a violent campaign targeting the company and the people that drive its cars. 

Andy talked about this today on the Schwab Network. 

Watch for yourself why we see asymmetric upside from here:

Bitcoin: President Donald Trump vowed to make the U.S. the “undisputed Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world.” In a pre-recorded speech at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit, Trump announced his administration is ending regulatory roadblocks from the previous administration and pushing Congress to pass legislation for stablecoins and digital asset market structure.

The president also confirmed the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a first-of-its-kind U.S. government stockpile of Bitcoin. The initiative aims to prevent the government from offloading Bitcoin at undervalued prices, a decision Trump criticized the prior administration for mishandling. White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks compared the reserve to a “digital Fort Knox.”

The announcement fueled speculation on how U.S. policy will shape institutional Bitcoin adoption, reinforcing optimism around regulatory clarity and broader financial integration.

Amazon (AMZN): AMZN shares have traded mostly flat this week but we did see plenty of headlines and also speculation of what could be brewing for the company:

• Spring Sale Launching Next Week: Amazon’s Big Spring Sale runs from March 25 through March 31. The event will feature major deals across tech home and fashion with early access already live on top brands. This gives Amazon a strong close to Q1 during a seasonally slower stretch for eCommerce.

• Used Car Expansion to Support Dealerships: Amazon Autos is preparing to let dealerships sell used vehicles directly through its platform. The service first launched with new Hyundai cars and is now live in more than 60 cities. Amazon plans to extend the offering so dealers can list and sell used inventory online using a fully transactional eCommerce model rather than a lead generation tool. This provides dealerships with a new digital sales channel and gives shoppers a way to complete the entire purchase process online including trade-ins financing and scheduling pickup with their local dealer.

• AI Chip Price War Against Nvidia: Amazon Web Services (AWS) slashed the price of its Trainium AI chips in an apparent challenge to Nvidia. The chips now offer similar performance at just 25 percent of the cost of Nvidia’s H100 making AWS a more attractive option for businesses looking to cut AI training costs. AWS has been pushing its own silicon to compete in the AI infrastructure market but this move signals an aggressive push to take market share. Whether AWS can pull customers away from Nvidia’s software ecosystem remains a key question but Amazon is clearly positioning itself to control more of the AI computing stack rather than relying on external suppliers.

Portfolio Update

Robinhood (HOOD): +11%

Robinhood launched a full-scale prediction market hub this week, giving users access to real-money contracts on live event outcomes—starting with March Madness. The rollout follows a successful trial run last year tied to the 2024 presidential election, which saw over 500 million contracts traded in one week.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate the new platform could generate a $260 million annual revenue run-rate, boosting 2025 EPS by roughly 14% at 80% incremental margins. Robinhood plans to expand the offering in the coming months, with March Madness serving as a high-visibility launchpad.

In addition, the stock received a boost following this week’s Fed meeting, where policymakers reaffirmed expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. The steady outlook helped calm investors after recent inflation concerns and lifted sentiment across growth-oriented names.

Magnite (MGNI): +6%

Magnite shares climbed this week after the company announced an expanded partnership with Cross Screen Media following the 2024 election cycle. Cross Screen adopted Magnite’s ClearLine platform—a self-service buying solution built to streamline access to CTV inventory and eliminate intermediaries. In a two-week period leading up to a statewide race last October, ClearLine helped deliver 8% incremental reach over DSPs alone, and 4% over a combined TV and digital strategy.

With 40% of swing voters now unreachable through linear TV, direct access to CTV inventory has become a core requirement for modern political advertisers. Magnite is positioning ClearLine as the infrastructure that powers that shift—offering political buyers more control, speed, and measurable outcomes during the high-stakes sprint of campaign season.

FiscalNote (NOTE): +6%

FiscalNote shares moved higher this week after the company expanded its PolicyNote platform with a new AI-powered “Presidential Actions” widget. The feature gives users near real-time access to Executive Orders, Memorandums, Proclamations, and Fact Sheets, all filterable within a centralized dashboard. Built on FiscalNote’s proprietary AI assistant, the widget allows policy professionals to search, interpret, and assess the potential impact of White House actions using natural language.

With the current administration leaning heavily on executive orders to drive policy, the update positions PolicyNote as a critical tool for organizations navigating fast-moving regulatory shifts...exactly as we predicted. 

Snapchat (SNAP): +6%

Snapchat pushed higher this week alongside market optimism. At LikeFolio, we are monitoring 2 very bullish indicators for the stock:

Snapchat digital traffic is up +15% YoY – at the top of the pack of social media sites

Snapchat ad-platform traffic is also outperforming, logging consistent, double-digit growth in traffic while other sites show a loss of momentum (other than RDDT, which is also in our portfolio). 

Translation: Snapchat users are more engaged and ad interest is rising. We’re holding for now. 

SoundHound AI (SOUN): -7%

SoundHound shares dipped this week despite a major product integration announcement with NVIDIA. The company is expanding its use of NVIDIA AI Enterprise tools—including NIM and NeMo microservices—to enhance inference speed, improve retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and streamline model tuning across cloud and edge environments. Lucid Motors is the first customer to benefit, integrating the upgraded system into its in-vehicle voice assistant for faster, more responsive user interactions. We remain bullish.