LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

July’s inflation report came in hot. It showed a 0.9% jump in producer prices, the largest monthly gain since mid-2022, led by higher costs in transportation services, portfolio management fees, and trade services. 

Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.6% — its fastest pace in over two years — showing that price pressure is building in areas where costs typically don’t fall quickly once they rise. 

These categories often feed directly into what businesses charge customers, making it harder for inflation to cool in the months ahead. While overall price growth is still well below the double-digit levels of 2022, the acceleration complicates the Fed’s case for a September rate cut, even as markets still expect one before year-end.

Retail sales rose 0.5% in July, but some of the gain came from higher prices rather than increased volumes. 

That means households are spending more dollars without getting more goods, a dynamic that stretches budgets and forces trade-offs. Those trade-offs are already showing up in earnings reports.

In fast casual dining, CAVA’s same-store sales growth dropped to 2.1% from 21% just two quarters ago as customers pushed back on higher menu prices. Chipotle moved from +5% to -4% over the same span, while Sweetgreen fell from +4% to -7%. Menu prices have reached the point where traffic is being lost, with a $19 burrito bowl no longer an easy sell for many households.

Tapestry’s Q2 results told the same consumer-spending story from a different angle. As one of the more affordable luxury brands, Coach and Kate Spade depend on aspirational purchases from mid-tier consumers. Those buyers are pulling back, skipping $400 handbags and forcing the company into heavier promotions that erode both margins and brand value. Shares fell 15% after earnings.

On the flip-side, premium brands with loyal, high-income customers are showing the opposite trend. 

On Holding (ONON)  and Celsius (CELH) have continued to raise prices without losing sales, backed by a customer base insulated from wage stagnation. Bank of America’s July data shows why: low earners saw wage growth of only 1.3% over the past year, compared to 3.2% for higher earners. That gap is widening, and it’s defining who wins and who loses this earnings season. 

As Andy emphasized in this week’s founders call, investors should focus on companies with pricing power and customers who can keep spending regardless of where inflation prints next.

Watch the Founders Call below for a detailed dive on our take for the state of the consumer:

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio through close on Thursday, August 14:

Infinite Hold Update 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin flirted with all-time highs early in the week, climbing above $122,000 on August 11 before easing back to around $117,000. The retreat leaves prices little changed for the week, but still near historic levels.

The move came as Washington sent mixed signals on federal Bitcoin policy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent first told reporters that the U.S. would not add to its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a comment that briefly weighed on sentiment. Hours later he clarified that purchases could still take place if they were budget neutral, leaving the possibility of government accumulation on the table. 

At the same time, BlackRock disclosed that its crypto holdings had surpassed $100 billion, with Bitcoin making up the majority. That scale of exposure from the world’s largest asset manager reinforces the view that institutional adoption is still in its early stages.

Our take? This is one of the most bullish “crashes” we’ve ever seen.

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla secured a transportation network company permit in Texas this week, allowing the company to operate robotaxi ride-hailing statewide, including without a safety driver, through August 2026. This authorization builds on its invite-only pilot in Austin, now paving the way for a broader program. CEO Elon Musk confirmed on X that “it will be open access next month,” signaling that general public access is imminent. 

Tesla is also recruiting vehicle operators in New York for data collection, suggesting plans for wider deployment. Because the company both designs the vehicles and builds its Full-Self-Driving software, it can roll out new features faster and keep more of the revenue upside as robotaxi services grow. Shares are finishing the week mostly flat after popping on positive robotaxi expansion news.

Amazon (AMZN): Amazon announced this week that U.S. Prime members can now add fresh groceries to same-day delivery orders in over 1,000 cities, with plans to expand the service to 2,300 by the end of 2025. The feature allows perishable items like produce, dairy, and meat to arrive alongside other products in a single delivery, integrating the grocery trip into Amazon’s existing checkout process.

This expansion targets one of retail’s largest untapped opportunities: groceries account for roughly 43% of U.S. retail sales, but only about 15% are purchased online. 

Goldman Sachs estimates that if just 10–20% of Amazon’s 129 million U.S. Prime members shift $50–150 of their weekly grocery spending to the platform, the move could generate $30–200 billion in potential gross revenue. 

The announcement sent Amazon shares higher and pressured competitors like Walmart, Kroger, and Instacart, as investors weighed the impact of Amazon’s scale and logistics advantage. With Prime sentiment rising, driven by speed, reliability, and easy returns, the grocery rollout adds yet another lever to a stock already trading near all-time highs.

Portfolio Update

SoundHound (SOUN): +22%

Our SOUN position exceeded a 100%+ gain this week, meeting our initial "we believe this stock could gain more than 100%" prediction in our buy alert in just over a year. 

Incredible. 

We think this stock still has legs. 

Last week, SoundHound posted its strongest quarter yet, delivering $42.7 million in Q2 revenue—a 217% year-over-year surge that blew past the ~$33 million analyst estimate. Management raised full-year guidance to $160–$178 million, added 1,000 new quick-serve restaurant locations to bring the total above 14,000, and signed agreements with three major U.S. automakers to integrate its Chat AI platform.

Upgrades also came in this week. 

The bullish case rests on how SoundHound makes money and the scale of the markets it is targeting. When the company lands a large customer, it books significant upfront revenue tied to implementation and integration. That revenue can be lumpy quarter to quarter, but it sets the stage for steady, high-margin recurring revenue from ongoing usage fees. The latest automotive wins open a long runway for that recurring component, as every voice-enabled transaction in a car using SoundHound’s platform would feed back into the company’s revenue base. 

Analysts see that combination of large upfront deals, sticky integration, and expanding transaction volume as a foundation for sustained growth in the fast-moving voice AI space. 

We obviously agree. Forward-looking web visits continue high, currently +10% YoY.

Lemonade (LMND): +19%

LMND stock continues to push higher – hitting a 52-week high – driven by Q2 earnings momentum. Last week company management showed a faster path to profit and explained that the company will keep a bigger share of each premium. Lemonade cut its quota-share reinsurance to 20% from 55% effective July 1, which sends more premium and gross profit through its own P&L as the book improves. Management also guided to positive adjusted free cash flow in 2025.

On the consumer front, we see LMND firing on all cylinders, with web visits at all-time highs. 

Reddit (RDDT): +13%

Reddit’s strong late-July report clearly excited investors. Q2 revenue reached $500M, up 78% year over year, with ad revenue up 84% to $465M, daily active uniques up 21% to 110.4M, and net income of $89M. Management also guided Q3 revenue to $535–$545M, signaling momentum into the current quarter. 

Shares are trading at all-time highs as we write this report and our RDDT position is officially up +73% in just under 9 months!

Investors are rewarding proof that Reddit can scale ad monetization while growing users and profits, a combination that moves the narrative beyond “traffic source risk” toward execution.

Lucky for members, we believed this was the case all along and we see continued growth for platform engagement and ad interest.

 The Trade Desk (TTD): -6%

This one stings a little. Shares extended their post-print slide this week. Q2 revenue came in at $694M, up 19% YoY, and Q3 guidance landed at at least $717M. The in-line outlook, set against a rich multiple and a step down in growth, sparked a record ~39% single-day drop on Aug 8 and selling continued into this week. 

The debate now centers on whether CTV ad demand and The Trade Desk’s Kokai AI upgrades can re-accelerate spend. Management said Kokai is driving better decisioning with first-party data, while industry data shows a continued shift toward connected TV impressions in H1 2025. Skeptics flag rising competition and valuation. Bulls point to durable CTV budgets and platform innovation.

On our end, we continue to see tremendous opportunity in the flow of ad dollars from linear to connected TV – and we think The Trade Desk is one of the best-positioned middle men to capitalize on this flow. But it’s also clear the company has some internal improvements to make. 

As it stands we do see some positive divergence in web activity and share price – but we are monitoring very closely for potential exit. 

Hims & Hers (HIMS): -9%

Shares dipped on a Bloomberg headline about an FTC probe, which the company called a “rehashed” story about the same inquiry disclosed last year. Filings and coverage show the agency first requested information in October 2023 and the company has been cooperating. Given that history and steady guidance, we treat this week’s headline as noise.

Our position is still firmly in the green and we are focused on the company’s push into areas of potential growth.

For example, the acquisition of a U.S. peptide facility strengthens domestic supply for personalized medications and peptide therapies, the weight-loss platform continues to expand, and the company is building out lab testing and longevity offerings. These steps support subscriber growth and higher lifetime value.