LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

This week was dominated by another major development in the AI sector (Grok 3 release – catch up here) and surprising weakness out of Walmart (WMT) on its Q4 report. 

Stocks slid as a broad selloff gained momentum, with losses accelerating after the Leading Economic Index (LEI)—a composite of ten forward-looking indicators, including jobless claims, new manufacturing orders, and consumer expectations—fell 0.3% in January. 

Economists had expected it to remain flat, and the drop marked a three-month low, suggesting that economic momentum may be deteriorating faster than anticipated. Market breadth was weak, with more than 85% of S&P 500 stocks declining—particularly in financials and consumer discretionary—while only health care and energy posted gains. 

While volatility remained below key stress levels, investors grew more cautious about the economic outlook, interest rates, and potential tariff risks.

Earnings reactions continue to be explosive. 

Here’s an overview of the biggest news and largest movers in our portfolio in the last week through close on Thursday, Feb. 20:

Infinite Hold Update

Tesla (TSLA) stock is ending the week slightly lower as the market stalls. We think the larger scale pullback is an opportunity for investors – and politicized fears are overblown. xAi’s news this week could have beneficial implications for TSLA. And LikeFolio data shows rising consumer interest. 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s stability above $97,000 shows increasing resilience, even as traditional markets face pressure. Its reduced volatility over the past two weeks marks a consolidation phase that could pave the way for renewed upside as macroeconomic uncertainty eases. With regulatory conditions improving and institutional interest holding steady, Bitcoin remains positioned for long-term growth.

Amazon (AMZN) traded ~2% lower this week following Walmart’s good but not great report. Despite a strong holiday season, Walmart’s leadership was hesitant to set the bar too high in regard to guidance, noting “wallets are still stretched.” Increased uncertainty surrounding the strength of the consumer may weigh on retail names in the near-term. 

Portfolio Update

After a massive week of gains last week (NOTE: +50%, AUR: +30%) the market retreated across the board. Some investors may have opted to take gains amid rising uncertainty. Our long-term conviction holds for the names in our portfolio. 

No major news was reported on a company level for these stocks and the underlying MegaTrends remain in place. 

• Aurora (AUR): -18%

• Robinhood (HOOD): -14%

• FiscalNote (NOTE): -10%

Reddit (RDDT): -10%

Reddit’s Q4 earnings outpaced expectations, with revenue surging 71% to $427.7 million and net income climbing to $71 million—nearly four times higher than a year ago. Ad revenue grew 60% to $394.5 million, and average revenue per unique user reached $4.21, exceeding forecasts. While daily active users came in slightly below estimates, Reddit is strengthening its monetization efforts with AI-powered search and data licensing, using its vast archive of discussions to improve ad targeting and create new revenue opportunities. Our bullish thesis holds.

Chipotle (CMG): -7%

Chipotle shares pulled back as investors weighed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs on Mexican imports, which could impact the company’s supply costs. Today, The Wall Street Journal reported that CFO Adam Rymer estimated a 60-basis-point hit to cost of sales if tariffs take effect, but the company left them out of its earnings guidance due to ongoing policy shifts. Despite near-term volatility, Chipotle’s pricing power and supply-chain flexibility position it to manage cost pressures while maintaining strong long-term growth.