LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Over the past week, the stock market has been shaken by hotter-than-expected inflation data, major revisions to prior reports, and high activity from retail investors. We’ve logged some massive moves – mostly to the upside – in many of our small-cap names. 

Let’s break it down:

• Inflation Shock: The January 2025 CPI rose 3.1% YoY, exceeding the expected 2.9%, pushing Treasury yields higher and initially sending stocks lower. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dropped just over a percent, before rebounding.

• PPI Revision Sparks Concerns: The December 2024 PPI was sharply revised up to 0.5% from a much lower initial estimate. These revisions indicate that inflationary pressures were significantly understated in late 2024, making it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as the market had hoped. 

• Retail Investors Dominating the Market:

  • Retail traders bought over $1.5 billion in stocks in early February, focusing on NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, GameStop, and AMC. Their aggressive buying has prevented deeper market declines, frustrating large institutional investors who have been unable to buy dips.

  • Robinhood (HOOD) surged after reporting record revenues, benefiting directly from increased retail trading and crypto speculation. More details below.

• Tariff Uncertainty: Donald Trump proposed new reciprocal tariffs on countries taxing U.S. imports. We’re diving into this theme in depth on our February Trend Watch report. Members, stay tuned.

Here are the biggest movers in our portfolio over the last week, including a bonus note for the newest stock added to our Core Conviction List.

Infinite Hold Update

• Tesla (TSLA) is pushing for a three-day winning streak after snapping a brutal five-day, 16% decline. The stock is now trading below the average Wall Street price target of $381, a level that historically signals upside potential. Analysts are increasingly bullish, with Benchmark recently setting a $475 price target. While EV sales stagnated in 2024, optimism is shifting toward Tesla’s AI-driven robo-taxi ambitions and humanoid robots, reinforcing long-term growth prospects. With price targets rising $30 in February alone, investors are betting that earnings expectations will catch up.

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin is ending the week higher following positive news from several companies. Reports suggest GameStop is considering Bitcoin investments, with speculation fueled by CEO Ryan Cohen’s recent meeting with MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, whose company holds a large Bitcoin position. Coinbase posted stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings, reporting $2.3 billion in revenue—more than double the previous year—driven by increased trading volumes. Robinhood also saw a 700% surge in crypto trading revenue, pushing its total Q4 revenue to $1.01 billion.

• Amazon (AMZN): No major news this week, stock mostly flat.

Portfolio Update

FiscalNote (NOTE): +50%

FiscalNote (NOTE) regained NYSE compliance after spending two months below the $1.00 threshold. While no major company-specific news has surfaced, investors appear to be betting on increased demand following the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) latest policy overview. The stock continues to see heightened trading interest, with volatility remaining elevated.

Aurora (AUR): +30%

Aurora announced its fourth quarter earnings this week and the market liked what it heard. The company narrowed its losses, but all eyes were on its slated commercial launch. The company plans for its first driverless trucks to be on public roads by April. Its Autonomous Readiness Measure for routes running from Dallas to Houston has reached 99% which will close out its safety case to then begin its commercial launch. This major play on autonomous logistics is still in early stages. 

Dutch Bros (BROS): +25%

Another positive earnings report from Dutch Bros with nearly a +35% YoY increase in revenue as well as an addition of 32 new locations during the period. BROS beat estimates on both the top and bottom line. Much of the growth was fueled by Dutch Rewards, its loyalty program, which accounted for over 70% of transactions. This company is still early in footprint expansion. Remain bullish.

Crocs (CROX): +17%

The market’s reaction to the CROX Q4 report was extremely validating to LikeFolio’s bullish earnings and long-term investment thesis: the company IS turning around the performance of its HEYDUDE acquired brand. We covered this in detail ahead of the retailer’s earnings release. (chart used for reference)

CROX confirmed what the data was telling us – HEYDUDE sales were flat vs. decreasing for the first time in 5 quarters. 

“We are pleased by the early signs of progress we made for HEYDUDE during the fourth quarter and are taking a prudent approach to how we shape 2025 guidance for HEYDUDE as we focus on reigniting the brand.”

Robinhood (HOOD): +14%

Robinhood stock had an outstanding week, bolstered by a strong earnings report(we called it and made +109% on our bullish coin flip trade) thanks to a 700% surge in crypto trading revenues. Our position has tripled in less than a year – and data shows more room for growth. Impressive.

NGL Energy (NGL): -18%

NGL stock sank following the release of its quarterly financial report, which had quarterly revenue down 17% YoY. Much of this comes as NGL’s crude oil and liquid logistics segments saw significant revenue decreases. Crude oil volume on the Grand Mesa pipeline decreased 12% while a slowdown of the biodiesel business led to the decrease in liquid logistics. This stock is on our watch list. So far we haven’t seen macro-level tailwinds as expected.

The Trade Desk (TTD): -30%

The Trade Desk (TTD) plunged after missing Q4 revenue expectations for the first time in 33 quarters ($741M vs. $758.9M est.), despite a slight EPS beat ($0.59 vs. $0.57 est.). The shortfall was driven by slower adoption of its AI platform, Kokai, weak growth in connected TV (CTV) and retail media, and disruptions from a December reorganization. Management cited go-to-market execution issues, raising concerns about near-term performance, while analysts cut price targets but maintained Buy ratings. 

Investors are now questioning whether this is a temporary setback or a sign of deeper execution issues. Our take? This quarter was concerning but it’s not time to panic or throw in the towel just yet.

LikeFolio data shows some signs of improvement – if you look at web data in January, it has flipped back in the green on a YoY basis after plunging nearly -30% YoY in the month of December. 

In December, TTD reshuffled its teams to streamline operations in CTV and retail media.

CEO Jeff Green said this was necessary to "capitalize on opportunities faster", but the restructuring caused short-term disruptions. Disruptions indeed.

It’s good to see web data improving – we’ll be monitoring very closely to confirm it continues to trend in the right direction. If it does, this tells us that management is getting internal execution back on track. 

At a high level, our long-term macro thesis (privacy-first ad targeting, CTV, AI-driven ads) is intact. We’re holding our bullish position as the streaming environment continues to attract eyeballs and ad dollars. Megan talked about this in detail on the Schwab Network.

Bonus: Core Conviction Note

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