McDonald's Earnings Preview: The K-Shaped Menu

The K-Shaped Economy Has Come for Fast Food

We've been hammering this theme all year, and McDonald's earnings Wednesday will serve as yet another proof point: the American consumer is splitting in two, and no industry is immune — not even the one built on dollar menus.

Here's the state of play. Moody's data shows the top 20% of income earners now account for 59% of all consumer spending — a record. The bottom 80%? Their share of the wallet just hit an all-time low. Food prices are up 29% since 2020. "Food away from home" has risen roughly 6% since January 2024 alone, outpacing grocery inflation by double.

The result is a fast-food industry experiencing something it was never designed for: its core customer can no longer afford it. A LendingTree survey found 80% of Americans now consider fast food a luxury purchase. Read that again. The industry built on accessibility is losing the accessibility argument.

The Two Arms of the K

↗ The Upper Arm: Higher-income consumers trading down into fast food for value. MCD sees double-digit visit increases from this cohort. Shake Shack visits +58% YoY. Delta premium seats +9%. The stock market wealth effect is still intact.

↘ The Lower Arm: Lower-income visits declining across QSR. Consumers shifting to grocery, dollar stores, cooking at home. 79% say grocery/home cooking delivers the best value for their money. Wendy's visits -25% YoY.

McDonald's itself acknowledged a "two-tier economy" on recent calls. The irony: the brand is gaining higher-income guests seeking value, while losing the lower-income guests the brand was originally built to serve. That's the K-shape in a single earnings report.

The Visit Landscape: Winners and Losers

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