MicroStrategy (MSTR) Earnings Preview

MicroStrategy (MSTR) reports earnings after the market closes tonight, but let’s be clear—this company’s stock trades almost entirely on Bitcoin price movement. Its software business is irrelevant to investors.

The real focus is Bitcoin holdings, mNAV levels, and capital-raising strategy.

With Bitcoin on our INFINITE HOLD LIST, MSTR’s ability to accumulate BTC is critical—but it’s no longer the only game in town.

Investors now have more ways than ever to gain Bitcoin exposure through equities, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and other companies adopting the Bitcoin accumulation strategy with stronger core businesses.

Here’s what to watch in this earnings release.

1. MSTR Changed Corporate Finance Forever

No company has done more to redefine corporate finance in the Bitcoin era than MicroStrategy.

Since 2020, MSTR has pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, proving that public companies can use equity and debt markets to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin while increasing BTC per share over time.

This strategy changed the world.

• MSTR raised billions through stock offerings and low-interest debt, turning a struggling software company into the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world.

• It proved that companies can use financial instruments—convertible bonds, at-the-market (ATM) stock sales, and preferred equity—to buy Bitcoin without relying on operational cash flows.

• The playbook is now being copied by others, including firms with better underlying businesses.

Does MSTR deserve a premium valuation?

Yes—but not an unlimited one.

• Unlike a simple Bitcoin ETF, MSTR creates financial instruments that allow it to acquire BTC in accretive ways—effectively increasing BTC per share over time.

• MSTR could also be thought of as an acquisition target for another company (or country) to obtain a huge stockpile of Bitcoin quickly… without having to buy the Bitcoin on the open market (and thus push its price significantly higher)

• That’s why MSTR should almost always trade above a 1.0x mNAV.

• But if dilution concerns grow, MSTR’s premium could erode—or even disappear.

2. mNAV Compression: Investors Aren’t Paying Up Like Before