ONON: The Massive Move You Could Have Seen Coming

Every so often, the market hands investors a gift.

In On Holding’s (ONON) case, it came wrapped in disbelief.

Heading into Q3 earnings, the stock had fallen roughly 35% YTD. Investors were convinced that fading consumer strength, higher tariffs, and Nike’s rebound meant the premium sneaker run was over.

But LikeFolio data told a different story.

Demand was climbing, consumer happiness was rising, and brand conversation was hitting new highs. While investor sentiment looked weak on the chart, the signals from real consumers said the opposite.

THIS SETUP is why our company exists.

It pays to listen to consumers.

Andy breaks it down here….

The Breakout

When ONON earnings hit the tape, everything we’d been tracking lined up at once.

• Revenue climbed nearly 25% to CHF 794 million, beating expectations and proving that consumer enthusiasm was translating into real growth.

• Margins expanded sharply as On held firm on full-price sales, lifting profitability to record levels.

• Management’s confidence showed immediately: full-year growth guidance increased to +34% in constant currency vs. 31% prior.

Asia-Pacific was the clear standout, with sales almost doubling as the brand’s reach extended beyond its core markets. Apparel momentum built quickly too, with growth approaching 90% as shoppers embraced the lifestyle side of the brand.

When the market finally caught up, shares jumped roughly 25% in a single session — a direct payoff for anyone watching the consumer data instead of the chart.

Why It Happened

ONON has built one of the rarest positions in retail: a performance brand that commands luxury-level loyalty. The company is choosing to skip Black Friday promotions altogether, reinforcing its confidence in full-price demand.

That approach works because the consumer base is both devoted and expanding.

LikeFolio’s data picked it up well before the report.

Mentions of ONON were up +8% through the quarter and accelerated to +15% in the last month. Those gains were not driven by runners alone — the brand’s “Cloud” line has become part of everyday fashion.

Shoppers who once bought for comfort now also buy for image.

Asia-Pacific also delivered breakout growth, up 94% YoY, while apparel nearly doubled.

Both categories prove that ONON’s reach extends far beyond running shoes.

The Macro Tailwinds: Luxury & Performance

High-income consumers remain the engine of discretionary spending, and ONON sits directly in their path.

Even as lower-income segments pull back, affluent buyers continue spending on premium, experience-driven goods. ONON’s clean design, performance credibility, and Swiss craftsmanship give it the kind of pricing strength that holds up even in slower macro periods.

The same dynamic that drove RL (Ralph Lauren)’s standout quarter is fueling ONON’s rise.

Consumers with stable incomes are choosing better products, not cheaper ones — and aspirational shoppers are following their lead.

High-income discretionary spending continues to outpace broader retail, lifting premium brands like ONON.

The Proof Was in the Data

LikeFolio flagged this trend well before earnings.

Our Earnings Score for ONON came in at +33 (Bullish) heading into the print, supported by rising social buzz, surging purchase intent, and stable happiness scores.

Earnings Season Pass members will see a gain of OVER 100% on this single trade… (if you’re not on Earnings Season Pass… just reply to this email for more info)

So Which Stocks Might Breakout Next?

The Q3 breakout was validation, not a one-off. LikeFolio’s latest readings suggest that enthusiasm remains elevated heading into the holiday quarter.

We’re watching three key drivers:

• Holiday sell-through without discounting — If ONON maintains full-price momentum through year-end, it cements premium status.

• Apparel expansion — Lifestyle and apparel sales continue to grow rapidly, expanding margins and customer lifetime value.

• Global traction — Asia remains a growth engine, while Europe and North America provide steady balance.

Six Stocks Ready to Dominate Holiday Shopping

ONON’s post-earnings surge was the payoff for months of rising consumer data that Wall Street ignored. This brand’s combination of pricing power, lifestyle crossover, and global scale creates the kind of setup investors look for — one where consumer enthusiasm leads fundamentals.

The next test comes during the holidays, but the signals are clear: demand is strong, pricing discipline is holding, and the brand’s momentum continues to build.

For LikeFolio members, ONON was a textbook example of what happens when you trust the data.

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