Starbucks is Losing Attention, and My Generation Feels It

Starbucks (SBUX) is falling out of step with consumers, and the data is loud.

Web visits are down -29% YoY as Starbucks loses ground to a wide swath of up-and-comers from Scooters to Dutch Bros (BROS). 

This chart proved prophetic ahead of SBUX earnings last week.

The company reported its sixth straight same-store sales decline. Q3 comps fell -2% globally, worse than expected. U.S. traffic fell again, even as prices rose. Adjusted EPS missed by a wide margin. Shares closed the week deep in the red.

Our bearish trade posted +95% gains in just under 3 days. 

The underlying theme is a breakdown in consumer loyalty, driven by a brand with diminishing brand proposition.

I felt it firsthand.

As a busy college student, I used to rely on Starbucks mobile order pickup to save time between practices and class. The mobile-only store on my college campus was one of the most popular spots on campus. It was fast, consistent, and had something for everyone, whether it was cold brew, refreshers, or matcha. Now, Starbucks is closing nearly 90 of those stores, saying they lacked “warmth.” But for my generation, speed and flexibility is the experience. Removing that makes the brand feel slower, older, and more out of touch.

And I’m not the only one noticing. Sentiment on X is slipping—complaints about high prices, staff shortages, and boycotts are stacking up. 

Starbucks is trying to pivot. It's pausing new store development and reworking existing cafes with better seating and real mugs. It’s investing $500 million in labor and store upgrades, while cutting 1,100 corporate roles. Some of these efforts are working—menu simplification made room for high-performing items like a new cortado and sugar-free matcha, which boosted matcha sales by nearly 40%. 

But drinks like “Iced Horchata Oatmilk Espresso”? That’s not helping. The brand feels bloated, complicated, and overly engineered. Starbucks is trying to fix operations, but it's still missing the cultural mark. 

Meanwhile, Dutch Bros (BROS) is doing exactly what Starbucks used to: fast, drive-thru drinks that are easy to order and tailored to local demand. It’s still small, but growing fast.

Frankly, BROS is winning where SBUX is slipping. Our bullish BROS position is up ~50%, as SBUX shares continue to drop in value.

To be clear: the bullish case for Starbucks is Niccol. He’s the king of turnarounds. He’s made bold decisions like cutting corporate bloat, ditching underperforming formats, and pushing toward store designs that deliver better returns. And we do see hints of promising product innovation, like the new Protein Cold Foam offering. (For context: BROS was way ahead on the protein trend.)

So far, we haven’t seen those changes translate into consumer traction. But if they do? It could be massive. We’re watching for it — it just hasn’t happened yet.

Bottom line: Starbucks is doing damage control. Dutch Bros is doing demand capture. Until the consumer shows up for SBUX again, our bet stays with BROS.