Tesla (TSLA) is STILL misunderstood

Tesla is STILL misunderstood.

Right now, it’s mainly seen as an automaker with a bit of energy in the mix. Fair enough, that’s its current business.

But Tesla is gearing up with two massive growth drivers—if either one succeeds, the stock could surge.

Our bet?

Tesla hits both targets.

It’s a binary play, but the potential reward is enormous.

Here’s a look at these two major levers: robotaxis and Optimus.

Robotaxi Impact

Tesla’s venture into autonomous ride-hailing has the potential to reshape its business and the market.

ARK Invest's projections illustrate this with a range of modeled share price outcomes for Tesla in 2029 based on different scenarios. The chart uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show how Tesla's valuation could change, factoring in varying degrees of robotaxi adoption and success.

According to ARK Invest, by 2029, robotaxis could account for nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings. In contrast, electric vehicles might contribute about a quarter of sales and roughly 10% of earnings due to the higher margin potential of robotaxis. The revenue potential is significant as Tesla’s fleet could generate income around the clock.

Tesla’s timeline for commercialization is aggressive but realistic.

ARK simulations include a 95% probability of a robotaxi rollout by 2026.

Political changes could smooth the path further. Favorable regulations may lead to streamlined national approvals, removing roadblocks. States like Texas and Arizona, which have fewer restrictions, provide ideal starting points for Tesla’s initial deployment.

Scalability

One major card Tesla holds in its back pocket is massive scalability – achieved by its infrastructure and cars already on the road.

Since 2012, its Supercharger network has grown from 17 locations in California to over 60,000 worldwide. 

This infrastructure advantage, combined with billions of autonomous miles driven, gives Tesla a major edge over competitors. Real-world data continuously refines its self-driving capabilities, improving performance and safety.

Tesla’s integrated model—combining software expertise, a massive fleet, and vertical control—sets it apart. The company aims to create an interconnected robotaxi network, seamlessly tied to its app and ecosystem. This approach gives Tesla a lead that is tough to rival.

Optimus: Expanding Beyond Vehicles

If robotaxis fail, consider Optimus.

Tesla’s humanoid robot could open entirely new markets and revenue streams. Optimus is designed to handle repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks in industries like manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare. This could drive major productivity gains and cost reductions.

Tesla’s integrated model—combining software expertise, a massive fleet, and vertical control—sets it apart. The company aims to create an interconnected robotaxi network, seamlessly tied to its app and ecosystem. This approach gives Tesla a lead that is tough to rival.

Optimus: Expanding Beyond Vehicles

If robotaxis fail, consider Optimus.

Tesla’s humanoid robot could open entirely new markets and revenue streams. Optimus is designed to handle repetitive, dangerous, or mundane tasks in industries like manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare. This could drive major productivity gains and cost reductions.

Projections from Morgan Stanley released earlier this week highlight Optimus’s potential, estimating that by 2030 it could add $500 billion to Tesla’s value. The humanoid robotics market may grow faster and become larger than the autonomous vehicle market, with Tesla leading the charge. Optimus leverages Tesla’s AI and Full Self-Driving technologies, accelerating its capabilities and market adoption.

LikeFolio Data Shows a Brand Bump

The buzz around Tesla isn’t limited to future opportunities.

Its brand continues to capture significant consumer attention. 

Web traffic is accelerating, up 16% year-over-year on a 30-day moving average, besting major peers.

Bottom Line

If Tesla successfully commercializes either robotaxis or Optimus, the impact on its stock will be profound. We see both outcomes as highly achievable, particularly with Elon Musk at the helm. It’s a high-stakes bet with the potential for exceptional returns. Bullish.