The Holiday Alpha Playbook

The 2025 holiday shopping season isn't just one story—it's two. Our proprietary consumer signal data confirmed that Black Friday/Cyber Weekend demand was "well over expectations," showing way more underlying consumer strength than the market was bracing for. But here’s the kicker: the spending is totally polarized.

To find real investment alpha, you have to play the two ends of the retail spectrum: the resilient high-end consumer buying aspirational, technical products, and the constrained majority hunting for optimized deep value. The critical common denominator is digital dominance and flexible payments (BNPL).

This environment provides two unique opportunities:

• Long-term: Exploit significant valuation disconnects in aspirational apparel where robust consumer data suggests strong underlying engagement despite stock declines.

• Short-term: Leverage critical timing advantages in names reporting earnings next week, where early Black Friday signals indicate potential operational disruption relative to muted street forecasts.

Let’s dig in…

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