The New Tariff Era: America’s Next Great Market Divide

“Tariffs are the taxes politicians pretend someone else pays.”

Milton Friedman said it decades ago. Today that hidden tax drives the winners and losers of global trade.

Tariffs now dictate where products are built, how they’re priced, and which companies keep their margins intact.

As the Supreme Court reviews V.O.S. Selections v. Trump, the legality of the president’s tariff program hangs in the balance, but the impact is already showing up in the data.

LikeFolio consumer trends, corporate earnings, and external research all point to the same outcome: the tariff system has altered how global commerce works.

U.S. manufacturers and patriotic consumer brands are gaining share. Import-dependent sectors are under pressure.

For investors, that divide may be the single biggest opportunity of the 2020s.

Here’s what we’re watching…

THE MACRO SHOCK: RECORD REVENUE, RECORD PRESSURE

President Trump has quietly turned tariffs into a major federal revenue engine.
Through October 31, 2025, the U.S. collected $223.9 billion in customs duties, a 174% increase from a year ago.

October alone brought in a record $34.2 billion, putting the country on pace to hit $300 billion in tariff revenue for the year.

That’s more than the annual budgets of NASA and the EPA combined.

And the source is crystal clear: China now accounts for 44% of all tariffs collected, despite ranking only third in total export volume to the U.S.

The effective tariff rate on Chinese goods has surged from 10.6% in 2024 to 40.4% this summer, the steepest increase in modern history.

Imports from Mexico, America’s top trading partner, carry an average effective tariff of 4.7%, while Canada sits near 3% under USMCA exemptions, according to U.S. International Trade Commission data as of July 2025.

The spread between those rates has triggered one of the largest realignments in trade flows ever recorded.

Factories, retailers, and logistics networks are reorganizing around that gap.

The winners are building inside the wall. The losers are still paying to climb it.

🟩 WINNERS: COMPANIES BUILT INSIDE THE WALL

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