Tonight Could Change Everything. Here's the Playbook.

Tonight at 8 PM Eastern, we get an answer.

President Trump gave Iran a deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz... or face strikes on power plants and bridges. "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one," he posted. Iran's response? Negotiations are "incompatible with ultimatums."

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are pushing a 45-day ceasefire framework that would reopen the Strait immediately and give both sides 15-20 days to finalize a broader deal.

One of these paths leads to a massive relief rally. The other leads to escalation.

Either way, the K-shape consumer keeps spending.

Here's how we're thinking about it.

Scenario 1: Hormuz Opens

If a ceasefire takes hold or Iran blinks, the cascade is fast.

Oil crashes. WTI went from $65 to $114 in five weeks. A Hormuz reopening could send it back below $90 in days. Brent follows. Gas prices peak and start falling within a week.

That triggers a violent rotation.

Airlines snap back first. Delta (DAL) is down hard on fuel costs... but LikeFolio's consumer demand data tells a different story. DAL carries a LikeFolio Main Street Score of 62 vs. a LikeFolio Wall Street Score of just 29. Consumers are still booking flights. Wall Street is scared of jet fuel. When that fear lifts, the Divergence Gap closes fast.

Cruise lines follow. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) has one of the widest LikeFolio LikeFolio Main Street vs. Wall Street divergences in our entire coverage universe... 77 Main Street vs. 34 Wall Street. That's a STRONG BUY signal with 72% upside to our target of $33.

The top-of-K consumer never stopped booking. Boomers don't cancel a $5,000 cruise because of a war headline. They've been planning this trip for months. LikeFolio's data says they're still clicking "Book Now."

Bitcoin (BTC) rips on de-escalation. We saw this play out in early March... BTC surged from $63K to $74K when the first pause was announced. A ceasefire would remove the macro overhang that's kept crypto in a $65K-$70K range for weeks.

Tech rebounds. NVIDIA (NVDA) and the AI names that got dragged down by helium supply concerns (you read our piece this morning) get a reprieve as Hormuz reopening restores the semiconductor supply chain.

Scenario 2: Hormuz Stays Closed

If Iran holds firm and Trump escalates... oil goes to $120 or higher. The inflation math changes. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warned today in his annual letter that the war risks "significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks" that could push interest rates higher than markets expect.

In that world, energy stays hot. Defense stays hot. And the Fed stays frozen.

But here's what most people miss about this scenario...

The K-shape consumer still doesn't crack.

Hims & Hers (HIMS) just surged 50% on the Novo Nordisk partnership and carries a Main Street Score of 85... the highest of any name in our spotlight list. Web visits are holding strong. Subscribers hit 2.5 million. The wellness economy doesn't stop because oil is expensive.

Five Below (FIVE) is running +14% same-store sales with a Main Street Score of 63 vs. Wall Street at just 22. That's the bottom-of-K consumer voting with their wallets. Even the value shopper is spending.

Dutch Bros (BROS) posted 29% revenue growth and 7.7% same-store sales gains last quarter. Transaction growth of 5.4% means more customers walking in... not just paying higher prices. Main Street 62, Wall Street 27. The Street still doesn't believe it.

The Pattern That Keeps Repeating

Look at those numbers.

Every single name shows the same thing. Consumers are engaged. Wall Street is hiding.

This is the K-shape economy in real time. The top half keeps spending on experiences, wellness, and premium brands. The bottom half finds value at Five Below. And neither group is fazed by $110 oil or a war in the Middle East.

When Main Street and Wall Street diverge this sharply, history says pay attention to Main Street.

The Trade

You don't need to predict whether Hormuz opens tonight.

If it opens... the beaten-down travel and consumer names rip. NCLH and DAL lead the way. BTC breaks out of its range. Oil names pull back but the broader market rallies hard.

If it doesn't... energy and defense keep working, but the consumer names we highlighted above keep grinding higher regardless. The demand is real. The data says so. Oil doesn't kill the K-shape consumer... it just makes the divergence louder.

Our favorite positioning:

NCLH ... STRONG BUY, 72% upside. The widest LikeFolio Main Street / Wall Street gap in travel. Wins big on de-escalation, holds steady on escalation because the top-of-K traveler doesn't cancel.

HIMS ... Main Street Score of 85. The highest consumer demand signal in our spotlight list. War or peace, people still want GLP-1 drugs and wellness subscriptions.

BROS ... Transaction growth proves it. More customers, not just higher prices. This brand is scaling regardless of the macro backdrop.

The Bottom Line

The market wants you to pick a side. Hormuz opens or it doesn't. Risk on or risk off.

We think that's the wrong framing.

The right framing is: where is consumer demand holding strong regardless of outcome? Our data gives a clear answer. The names above show Main Street conviction that Wall Street hasn't caught up to.

Tuesday night will be volatile. The headlines will be loud. But the K-shape consumer just keeps spending.

Position accordingly.