Traders are betting on clarity

Stocks are rising today ahead of a key tariff announcement from the White House set for 4 p.m. tomorrow. 

President Trump is expected to outline new trade measures Wednesday afternoon. Economic data released this morning showed a drop in manufacturing activity, fewer job openings, and a spike in input costs. 

Traders are buying anyway.

The White House has scheduled the announcement for 4 p.m. Eastern. President Trump has referred to the event as “Liberation Day,” describing it as a decisive shift in U.S. trade policy. At the center of the plan is a set of reciprocal tariffs meant to match the import duties that other countries impose on American goods. The U.S. runs trade deficits with most of its major trading partners. The administration says the new policy is aimed at strengthening domestic production and restoring balance to trade relationships.

While tariffs on steel, autos, and energy products have already been announced, the rollout has been inconsistent. Some are scheduled to begin this week. Others remain delayed. The biggest unknown is the full list of reciprocal tariffs—what goods will be targeted, which countries will be affected, and when enforcement begins.

That uncertainty has already pushed some companies to make changes. Supply chains are shifting. Pricing models are being revised. Some tariffs are active. Others are still pending. Policy has been introduced in stages, and enforcement has been inconsistent. Tomorrow’s announcement is expected to lock in the full plan.

This comes at a time when the economy is already showing signs of strain. Manufacturing contracted in March. The ISM index fell to 49.0. The prices-paid index jumped to 69.4, the highest in over a year. Job openings declined to 7.57 million. Businesses are responding to changing conditions before the full policy has even been finalized.

Even so, many stocks are holding gains today (*at the time of writing) because traders expect answers tomorrow. The White House has made the direction of trade policy clear. What’s missing is execution. Investors want to see what’s enforceable, what’s delayed, and what’s still in play. 

Right now the market is banking on clarity. We’ll be watching closely to see if we get it.