We're More Bullish on TSLA than EVER

NOTE: TSLA is one of our INFINITE HOLD STOCKS.

Click here to view the list and our 2025, 2029, and 2035 price targets for TSLA.

Tesla’s stock is down, analyst sentiment is weak (9 out of 10 bet against the stock yesterday), and the market sees slowing EV demand and margin pressure as existential threats.

Yesterday’s muted reaction to Tesla’s earnings report – and more importantly, to its stellar earnings call – was eye-opening.

This tepid response is a miscalculation – and incredible opportunity for TSLA investors.

The asymmetric upside on TSLA has never been greater, with multiple game-changing catalysts converging, driven by vision and leadership that comes around once in a generation.

The market is failing to price in Tesla’s dominance in artificial intelligence, autonomy, and robotics—all of which have the potential to make Tesla worth more than the next five largest auto companies combined.

Here’s why we believe betting on TSLA now presents one of the most compelling upside opportunities in the market:

Full Self-Driving (FSD) Is Approaching a Tipping Point

For years, Tesla has been criticized for missing deadlines on autonomy. That skepticism remains, but the reality has changed. Tesla’s FSD Version 13 has already demonstrated exponential improvements, and Musk just confirmed that unsupervised FSD (no driver in the car) will launch in Austin by June 2025. Expansion across the U.S. will follow by year-end, with regulatory approval being the only major constraint internationally.

The implications are massive. FSD turns every Tesla into an income-generating asset overnight. Currently, cars sit idle for 90-95% of the day. Once autonomous, utilization jumps to 50+ hours per week—5x the current rate—transforming Tesla's vehicle fleet into a revenue powerhouse. The market is not pricing in this potential multi-trillion-dollar business model shift.

Safety Data Will Force Adoption & Regulation to Catch Up

Tesla’s Q4 safety report shows how far ahead the company is in autonomy. FSD-equipped vehicles had one crash per 5.9 million miles, compared to the U.S. average of one crash per 700,000 miles. That’s nearly 8.5 times safer than a human driver.

Musk made it clear: FSD is already beyond human-level driving in many scenarios. With upcoming software versions scaling memory retention and reinforcement learning, Tesla’s AI advantage will widen. At a certain point, regulatory hesitation flips, and the liability shifts from allowing human drivers to control vehicles to not mandating autonomy.

Once that inflection point is reached—likely within the next 12-24 months—Tesla’s ability to license FSD to other automakers will unlock an entirely new profit stream that the market is currently valuing at zero.

Supercharging Network: A Recurring Revenue Moat

Tesla’s Supercharger network is an overlooked but high-margin, recurring revenue asset that reinforces its dominance in EV infrastructure.

While legacy automakers struggle with unreliable third-party charging solutions, Tesla’s fast, reliable, and widespread network remains the gold standard.

The key shift? Tesla is now monetizing this advantage by opening Superchargers to non-Tesla EVs, creating a tollbooth model. Major automakers, including Ford, GM, and Rivian, have already committed to adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS), meaning their EVs will depend on Tesla’s infrastructure.

The Supercharger Network’s Growth & Revenue Potential:

✅ 60,000+ Superchargers globally, with rapid expansion underway
✅ Non-Tesla EV owners now paying Tesla directly for access
✅ Automakers integrating Tesla’s NACS, locking them into its ecosystem
✅ Government funding accelerating deployment, reducing Tesla’s capex burden

In essence, Tesla is quietly becoming the de facto standard for EV charging, much like Apple with its App Store ecosystem. As more automakers rely on Tesla’s infrastructure, Supercharging revenue will scale exponentially, adding another high-margin cash flow stream that Wall Street is underestimating.

Bitcoin Exposure Provides an Unrecognized Financial Windfall

Tesla’s $600 million Q4 mark-to-market gain on Bitcoin is just the beginning. The new accounting standard means Tesla will now book quarterly gains on its BTC holdings. With Bitcoin surpassing $42,000 and new all-time highs likely in 2025 (driven by the halving and institutional adoption), Tesla’s non-operational financial tailwind could easily reach several billion dollars.

Most companies hoard cash in depreciating fiat currencies—Tesla instead positioned itself early in Bitcoin. If BTC follows historical cycles and surges well above $100K, Tesla’s holdings could quietly add billions to its balance sheet, creating an unexpected upside catalyst that traditional analysts are overlooking.

Cost Reduction + Manufacturing Scale = Margins Will Rebound

Tesla has slashed per-vehicle costs below $35,000, an overlooked achievement given persistent inflation and capital investments in AI and robotics.

The company is retooling all Model Y factories—an unprecedented move for the world’s best-selling car—to push margins higher.

The near-term margin compression due to factory retooling will be temporary. By late 2025, Tesla will have a lower-cost model launching, further expanding its total addressable market (TAM) and reinforcing its cost leadership in EVs. With Megapack battery storage demand growing 50%+ year-over-year, Tesla’s energy business is also poised to contribute significant cash flow.

Optimus & AI Will Make Tesla a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Company

Musk made it clear: Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, will be worth more than the entire auto business. The company is targeting several thousand units in 2025, scaling to millions annually.

The market is asleep on Tesla’s AI and robotics strategy. While others talk about AI in terms of software, Tesla is integrating it with hardware—real-world AI. Optimus will disrupt labor markets globally, replacing human labor in factories, warehouses, and beyond. Musk projects that long-term revenue from Optimus will surpass $10 trillion.

This isn’t science fiction. Optimus already operates in Tesla factories, handling tedious, dangerous tasks. At scale, it could be one of the most transformative products in Tesla’s history.

The Asymmetric Bet: Tesla Is Mispriced for the Future

Tesla is not simply a car company—it’s the leading real-world AI company, the leader in autonomy, and soon, the leader in robotics.

The market is still anchoring its valuation to EV sales and margins, completely ignoring AI-driven software and hardware businesses that could 10x its value.

At today’s price, TSLA offers asymmetric upside with multiple ways to win:
✅ Autonomy flipping Tesla from a hardware seller to a software revenue machine
✅ Safety data forcing regulatory shifts and licensing deals for FSD
✅ Bitcoin holdings acting as an unrecognized financial hedge with massive upside
✅ Cost reductions positioning Tesla for an industry-wide rebound
✅ Optimus creating a completely new market that will dwarf the auto sector

Musk is building the future. The market is still underestimating Tesla’s execution, but the reality is unfolding faster than most realize. A bet on TSLA today is a wager on exponential growth that Wall Street has yet to grasp.