LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Here’s a breakdown of the biggest takeaways from the LikeFolio research desk through Thursday, Oct. 2:

• Netflix (NFLX) has a problem – Cancellation interest is the highest ever recorded

• Fall Trend Watch – Birkenstock (BIRK) demand surges, Dutch Bros (BROS) dominates

• Infinite Hold Update: Bitcoin is back

• Stock Spotlights: Crypto and Nuclear Plays Soar; RDDT investor sentiment sours

Netflix (NFLX) Has a Major Problem

In September 2020, Netflix faced a reputational storm when the French film Cuties sparked the largest churn surge in its history. Cancellation mentions spiked to five to eight times normal daily levels, with traffic to Netflix’s cancellation page up nearly 200%. 

Social media analysis from X (formerly Twitter) during that period reveals the intensity: users posted viral calls to action, sharing screenshots of cancellations and decrying the film as "child exploitation" or "grooming," with hashtags like #CancelNetflix trending. Influencers and media amplified the outrage, but engagement was moderate—top posts garnered 1K-5K likes, and the controversy faded within days as subscriptions rebounded. 

Yet the impact was short-lived. 

International subscriber growth, which accounted for 80% of Netflix’s gains that year, offset the U.S. cancellations. Netflix ended 2020 with 26 million new subs in the first half alone and shares closing the year higher. 

Critically, the pullback in NFLX stock was fleeting: shares dipped mid-September amid the headlines but finished the month nearly flat, reflecting investor confidence in the company's broader momentum.

Today’s situation looks very different—and X sentiment analysis highlights just how amplified the backlash has become. 

This time, the churn crisis could lead to a far more prolonged and damaging pullback in NFLX stock, given the lack of offsetting user growth factors and heightened market scrutiny.

LikeFolio data shows cancellation searches now running more than double the Cuties peak, and this time the surge is concentrated in Netflix’s core U.S. and Canada (UCAN) region. 

On X, the current wave—sparked by accusations of graphic or "indoctrinating" content in children's shows like Dead End: Paranormal Park, Strawberry Shortcake: Berry in the Big City, and The Baby-Sitters Club (rated for young audiences)—has exploded in virality. 

Users frame these as promoting transgender themes, pronouns, and cross-dressing, labeling it "grooming" or a "trans agenda." High-profile endorsements, such as Elon Musk's post urging "Cancel Netflix for the health of your kids" (garnering 992K likes and 89M views), have propelled the movement far beyond 2020 levels. Other influencers like Libs of TikTok (128K likes) and Benny Johnson have shared threads with millions of views, often referencing Cuties as a prior red flag and tying the issue to broader "woke ideology." 

Engagement metrics are staggering: individual posts exceed 100K likes and 10M views, with reports of "mass cancellations" and a $15-20B market value loss. Even congressional scrutiny, with figures like Rep. Tim Burchett calling for hearings on Netflix executives, adds a political dimension absent in 2020.

This matters because UCAN is Netflix’s most profitable geography. In 2024, UCAN contributed $17.36B in revenue with the highest ARPU globally at $17.20 per subscriber, far above EMEA ($10.80), LATAM ($8.28), and APAC ($7.17). That means losses here carry far more financial weight than in lower-ARPU markets.

Equally important: UCAN subscriber growth was already slowing before this spike. 

In Q3 2024, the region added only 0.69 million net subscribers, down sharply from 1.75 million in the prior year’s quarter. In 2022, UCAN even posted net subscriber losses, underscoring market saturation. Netflix itself has acknowledged the issue, announcing it would stop reporting subscriber counts in 2025, telling investors to focus on revenue and margins instead. 

That decision reduces transparency exactly when churn signals are flashing red—and when X data shows users not just outraged over specific content but linking it to ongoing frustrations like pricing hikes, ad-tier rollouts, password crackdowns, and "content fatigue."

When the Cuties scandal erupted, NFLX shares pulled back but finished the year higher. 

This time could be different – the consumer reaction is stark:

For investors, this combination represents a material risk. A cancellation wave of this size in Netflix’s core region during a period of weakened growth is not easily dismissed. With UCAN providing nearly half of Netflix’s revenue and driving operating margins, the financial impact could be significant—especially as X sentiment reveals a more politicized, sustained backlash that references past scandals like Cuties as evidence of a pattern, potentially eroding long-term subscriber loyalty.

Netflix is set to report earnings Tuesday, Oct. 21 – and we will be monitoring very closely. 

The key metric to watch: Netflix web visits. 

Why? 

To cancel, you must visit the website to access your account, you cannot cancel directly from your TV’s Netflix app.

If we see a significant surge, it will be clear this is not from new sign ups, rather cancellations – which could spell trouble for investors…and also opportunity for earnings players. Stay tuned.

Fall Trend Watch – Birkenstock (BIRK) demand surges, Dutch Bros (BROS) dominates

Consumers indulge in fall, historically speaking. From pumpkin-spiced lattes to cozy sweaters and holiday prep, autumn has long sparked a surge in spending as shoppers embrace seasonal comforts and festivities. 

Data backs this up: the US Census Bureau and National Retail Federation (NRF) show consistent upticks in retail sales during September-November, driven by back-to-school hauls, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and early holiday shopping. 

August 2025—marking the start of fall—saw retail sales rise 0.6% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year, with June-August totals up 4.5% from the prior year. 

Large retailers historically ramp up hiring by tens of thousands to handle the "big jump" in demand, while travel bookings spike ~30% YoY for less-crowded autumn getaways. This sets the stage for a stronger-than-expected retail environment in 2025, where "cozy" indulgences like decor and events could defy economic caution and fuel resilient consumer spending. 

Amid these trends, two names stand out: Birkenstock (BIRK) and Dutch Bros (BROS). 

Consumer demand is heating up, even as both stocks have pulled back — creating the kind of divergence we love to flag for investors. X sentiment analysis further supports this thesis, revealing amplified excitement around fall-specific products and brand loyalty, with users sharing real-time purchases, reviews, and comparisons that underscore surging demand.

Birkenstock (BIRK): Demand up, stock cooling

Birkenstock web demand is trending +8% YoY, showing accelerating interest heading into the core fall season. 

On X, sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with users buzzing about the comfort and seasonal appeal of models like the Boston clogs in shearling and suede, often hailed as "the ultimate fall shoe" for cozy outfits. Viral posts highlight sales events offering up to 60% off, leading to hauls of limited-edition colors like cognac or thyme, and trend forecasts declaring clogs as 2025's "it" shoe with over 1,100 likes. This ties into reports of sellouts, a raised fiscal year revenue forecast, and a $7.5B valuation, with engagement on X reaching thousands of views for posts on new factories and sales beats.

Shares are trading ~10% off September highs. The dip stems from near-term pressures flagged in the last earnings call — margin compression tied to global expansion and FX headwinds. Importantly, revenue growth remained strong and management raised guidance. For investors, this pullback looks less like a demand problem and more like execution and investment timing, especially as X data shows sustained positivity around "cozy-core" aesthetics driving real consumer action.

Dutch Bros (BROS): Consumer buzz, valuation reset

Dutch Bros web demand is surging +19% YoY, powered by seasonal drinks and brand engagement. 

X analysis supports this, with users raving about the fall menu rollout on August 22—featuring caramel pumpkin brulee and cookie butter flavors—as "10/10" and superior to competitors like Starbucks. Posts describe "insane" drive-thru lines with 20+ cars, community gestures like fundraisers and prayer moments, and switches from SBUX due to better value and service. 

Meanwhile, BROS shares are down nearly -30% in the last month. The retreat follows broader restaurant/consumer weakness and investor scrutiny on execution, despite BROS beating Q2 earnings and revenue expectations. With Starbucks facing its own challenges, Dutch Bros is capturing younger consumers through loyalty programs and digital ordering — a strong long-term driver that isn’t reflected in the current stock price. 

The takeaway: Both Birkenstock and Dutch Bros are seeing demand move sharply higher just as Wall Street cools on the stocks. This could create a compelling set up ahead of earnings season.

Infinite Hold Update 

Bitcoin Surges Past $122K

Bitcoin crossed $122,000 this week, up nearly 10% and marking its highest level in two months. The rally coincided with the U.S. government shutdown, which delayed the official jobs report and left markets leaning on private payroll data. In that climate, investors turned to scarce assets, and Bitcoin led the charge.

Catalysts driving the surge:

• Bitcoin attracted safe-haven demand during the U.S. government shutdown. The suspension of official economic data releases created uncertainty, prompting investors to rotate into both Bitcoin and gold as hedges against fiscal dysfunction.
  

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in record inflows, reinforcing structural demand. U.S. ETFs absorbed more than $400M in a single day, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone capturing ~$200M. These flows require direct BTC purchases, amplifying scarcity.
  

• Rate-cut expectations lifted Bitcoin as yields came under pressure. A weak ADP payroll report, combined with the lack of official BLS data, pushed markets to price in earlier Fed easing. Bitcoin benefited directly as lower yields reduced the appeal of bonds.
  

• Bitcoin cleared technical resistance, triggering momentum buying. Surpassing the $120K threshold invited algorithmic and momentum-driven capital, carrying BTC to its strongest levels since summer.

Gold also advanced, but Bitcoin outperformed. Gold rose ~2.5% to record highs above $3,800/oz, as Bitcoin surged nearly +10%. 

Investor takeaway: Both gold and Bitcoin drew capital during a week of political paralysis and economic blind spots. Bitcoin’s breakout above $122K strengthens the long-term thesis that Bitcoin is the next-generation store of value.

Tesla (TSLA) Beats Estimates With Record Q3 Deliveries

• Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3, well above Wall Street estimates. The 7% YoY gain set a new quarterly record, with U.S. buyers accelerating purchases ahead of the EV tax credit expiration. This was Tesla’s strongest delivery print to date.

• Tesla stock pulled back despite the delivery beat, creating opportunity. Shares reversed lower as traders sold the news, focusing on concerns that Q4 will reflect pulled-forward demand. For conviction holders, this is another example of short-term noise overshadowing long-term strength.

• Tesla expanded Cybertruck sales into Qatar, extending global reach. After launching in Saudi Arabia earlier this year, Tesla added another Middle Eastern market, showing how the company is diversifying growth beyond its core U.S. and China base.

• Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package drew pushback, but leadership remains central. Large investors raised objections to the proposed plan, keeping governance debates alive. Musk’s role in Tesla’s innovation pipeline — FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus — is still the anchor of the investment case.

• Tesla continues to push autonomy forward with FSD 14 approaching. Even as a senior AI executive departed, Tesla is preparing to roll out Version 14 of full self-driving. The launch has the potential to turn millions of Teslas into Robotaxis, reshaping the company’s current revenue model.

Investor takeaway: Tesla had a great week. Deliveries crushed expectations, international expansion continued, and autonomy progress remains on track. Near-term pullbacks are familiar for Tesla holders and history shows conviction through the noise has consistently paid off.

Check out this week’s Founders Call for Andy and Landon’s full TSLA deep dive, including why the recent low lined up with public attacks, how FSD 14 could unlock Robotaxi economics, and why LikeFolio keeps Tesla in an infinite hold.

Amazon (AMZN) Builds Momentum Ahead of Holiday Season

• Analysts are naming grocery delivery as Amazon’s next major growth driver. HSBC called out Amazon’s push into same-day grocery as a catalyst that could significantly boost Prime loyalty and long-term retail growth. 

• Amazon introduced new hardware and Alexa+ features to strengthen its ecosystem. At its annual Devices and Services event, the company rolled out upgraded Echo speakers, a color Kindle, and deeper Alexa+ integrations. We’re watching for traction ahead of holiday gift giving season.

• Amazon’s upcoming Prime Big Deal Days are a key consumer test before the holidays. The October 7–8 event will serve as an early gauge of household spending patterns. It also gives Amazon an opportunity to accelerate e-commerce demand ahead of the peak shopping season.

• Amazon shares remain under pressure even with these positive catalysts. Investors are cautious about AWS growth and capital spending, leaving the stock lagging behind other large-cap technology peers. The disconnect between consumer strength and market sentiment creates an opening. The stock is mostly flat on the month.

Investor takeaway: Amazon enters October with clear catalysts in grocery expansion, consumer hardware, and Prime engagement. The company is executing across multiple growth fronts while investor expectations remain muted. That combination sets the stage for long-term upside as momentum builds into the holiday season.

Stock Spotlights: Crypto and Nuclear Plays Soar; RDDT investor sentiment sours

Richtech Robotics (RR): +22%
Richtech Robotics rallied this week on heavy trading activity, including an 8% gain on October 2 that drew well above-average volume. The strong move shows growing investor attention around robotics adoption as the company enters the fall season.

Centrus Energy (LEU): +14%
Centrus Energy reached a new 52-week high this week. The stock is benefiting from investor focus on nuclear fuel supply as nuclear remains a central theme in clean energy investment.

Oklo (OKLO): +16%
Oklo advanced after being chosen by the U.S. Department of Energy for a pilot program to develop new nuclear fuel lines. This selection adds credibility to its small reactor business model and supports long-term growth potential.

MicroStrategy (MSTR): +14%
MicroStrategy rose alongside Bitcoin’s rally, as it remains a leveraged way to invest in Bitcoin through equity shares. Coverage also highlighted that the company is on track for another profitable quarter, keeping speculation alive about eventual inclusion in the S&P’s 500 index.

Marathon Digital (MARA): +16%
Marathon Digital reported on October 3 that it produced 736 Bitcoin in September and now holds more than 52,000 Bitcoin. The production update came during Bitcoin’s surge above $120,000, giving the stock additional momentum.

Reddit (RDDT): -16%
Reddit shares fell this week after third-party data showed its content was cited less often by ChatGPT than in prior months. Despite that drop, analysts stressed that Reddit’s advertising strength and its partnership with Google remain the real revenue drivers, reinforcing the long-term bull case – we covered this in detail last week.