LikeFolio Weekly Roundup

Here’s a breakdown of the biggest takeaways from the LikeFolio research desk through Thursday, Sept. 25:

Weekly Summary

• Good News for $AAPL – The new iPhone is a hit

• Turnaround Watch – High Protein Cold Foam (SBUX) and Lululemon Membership (LULU) launches on deck – we’re tracking both in real-time

• Infinite Hold Update: What’s going on with Crypto?

• Stock Spotlights: Why good economic news spells trouble for risk-off names; LEU surges on Ohio Investment

Good News for $AAPL – the new iPhone is a hit

Web visits proved prophetic when it came to predicting iPhone 17 demand, continuing a trend we’ve been tracking at LikeFolio for years. 

When consumer demand pops HIGHER on a YoY basis on the date of the annual Keynote, $AAPL stock tends to move higher in the next 6-9 months. 

In contrast, when consumer demand dips LOWER on a YOY basis, the stock struggles. 

Two weeks ago we noted that Apple’s iPhone 17 “is off to a stronger start than last year’s cycle.”

You can see this in action on the chart below:

We promised an update when iPhones hit consumer hands, and can confirm this trend remains promising. 

We sampled hundreds of posts in September 2024 and September 2025 related to iPhone purchase intent and measured sentiment and drivers of sentiment.

iPhone Sentiment Analysis Results: 8 point shift HIGHER in 2025

• September 2025 → 64% positive sentiment (praise for camera upgrades and iPhone Air, value in deals, excitement over new features like 120Hz; complaints about high price, financial overextension, or minor bugs post-purchase).

• September 2024 → 56% positive sentiment (similar positives on reliability and affordability, but more gripes about battery issues, perceived obsolescence, and comparisons to competitors).

Early reports support LikeFolio data:

• Apple asked suppliers to boost iPhone 17 production by as much as 40% after pre-orders exceeded expectations. Reports said Apple requested Luxshare and at least one other supplier to increase output of the base iPhone 17 model by 30–40%, signaling demand is running ahead of early projections.

• Apple stores worldwide saw long lines on launch day, with customers queueing hours before opening. In New York, crowds gathered outside the Fifth Avenue flagship before sunrise, while stores in Europe and Asia also reported packed lines, reflecting strong consumer appetite for the new devices.

• Analysts raised Apple price targets after stronger-than-expected iPhone 17 demand lifted shares. Wedbush’s Dan Ives moved his target to a Street-high and projected Apple could see its best upgrade cycle in years, with the stock rallying more than 4% on the news.

Bottom line: We expect a strong quarter from AAPL and will be monitoring demand through the holiday shopping season. If current trends hold, it’s shaping up to be a strong few months for investors.

Turnaround Watch – $SBUX and $LULU lean on new products to boost consumer interest

Starbucks and Lululemon have both seen their momentum fade in 2025, with softer traffic and heightened competition weighing on results. Each brand is now rolling out new products and experiences designed to re-energize customers and reset the growth story.

For Starbucks, the centerpiece is Protein Cold Foam, a new twist on its core cold beverage platform set to launch September 29. 

The company is betting that adding protein-fortified toppings and lattes will tap into a broad wellness trend that has powered consumer categories from energy drinks to meal replacements. With protein intake top-of-mind for younger buyers, Starbucks is framing the launch as a way to bring functional nutrition into its daily drinks – and consumer interest is rising ahead of the launch.

Early adoption will be key: if consumers embrace these items the way they did cold brew, Starbucks could regain frequency and defend against fast-casual competitors chipping away at afternoon traffic.

For Lululemon (LULU), the turnaround effort hinges on its new membership program, which expands well beyond discounts. 

The updated model includes exclusive workout content, early access to product drops, and curated community events at local stores. It’s designed to lock in customer loyalty at a time when discretionary apparel spending is under pressure. By pairing membership perks with its latest performance capsule collections, Lululemon is trying to reinforce its status as more than an apparel label — a hybrid of fitness platform and lifestyle brand.

If successful, this membership tier could drive higher retention and recurring revenue in a way that stabilizes sales through uneven macro conditions.

The company needs it. Consumer demand has trended lower alongside the stock for the last 2 years. 

We’re tracking demand for both stocks during their seasonal peaks to confirm traction…or not.

Infinite Hold Update 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin fell back below $111,000 this week after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data forced traders to reconsider a cautious Federal Reserve.

Government figures showed the economy grew at a 3.8% annual pace in the second quarter, well above the previous 3.3% estimate and stronger than the initial 3% reading. Jobless claims also surprised, dropping to 218,000 from 232,000 the prior week, undercutting the idea that the labor market is weakening. Together, those reports pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up to nearly 4.20%, its highest level in three weeks.

The immediate effect was a pullback across risk assets. Traders increased the probability that the Fed might hold rates steady at its next meeting (though still low), with odds rising to 17% from 8% just one day earlier. Stocks fell, led by the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin slid to its lowest point since early September.

Our key takeaway? 

Crypto in general fell much more, much faster than Bitcoin this week -- Ethereum was down over 12%. We view this as confirmation that Bitcoin's multi-year shift from speculative risk asset to "digital gold" is underway.

Tesla (TSLA): Shares are closing the week mostly flat after a +30% run higher in September alone.

This chart blew our mind – Tesla is truly in a league of its own.

Here are key company highlights from this week:

• Tesla stock got a Street-high $600 price target. Wedbush’s Dan Ives raised his target from $500, pointing to Tesla’s rapid advances in autonomy and robotics. He argued Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap in early 2026 and $3 trillion by year-end as production scales on its autonomous and robotics roadmap.

• Shares have sharply outperformed over the past three months. Tesla stock is up 30% in that span, 5% year to date, and 67% over the past year, leaving most Wall Street analysts playing catch-up. The average analyst target remains just $342, while nearly half of analysts still rate Tesla a Buy.

• Full Self-Driving is on the verge of a major leap. Elon Musk said FSD Version 14 will begin rolling out next week, with 14.1 two weeks later and 14.2 shortly after. He described 14.2 as feeling “almost sentient,” meaning the car will anticipate conditions and adapt more smoothly. This could reduce driver interventions, increase regulator confidence, and boost adoption of Tesla’s subscription model.

• Autonomy is central to Tesla’s future value. A widely available FSD system would allow Tesla to expand its self-driving taxi service, already operating in Austin since June, into a high-margin software business that monetizes miles driven. Musk has also flagged Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as a revenue source starting in 2026.

• Tesla is scaling up AI infrastructure at a global level. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he wouldn’t be surprised if Elon Musk is the first to reach a gigawatt of AI compute. Tesla is building one of the world’s largest AI supercomputers to power both FSD and Optimus, underscoring its push to lead in AI hardware and software.

• European sales remain a drag. In August, Tesla sold 8,220 vehicles in the European Union, down 37% from a year earlier, marking a second straight month of weakness. That performance has capped some of the recent bullish momentum even as the company advances on autonomy and AI.

Amazon (AMZN): Shares closed Thursday down ~5% but all eyes are on a hardware event next week that could be great news for its advertising business. 

• Amazon will spotlight Vega OS at its September 30 hardware showcase. The company is replacing Google’s Android on Fire TV devices with its own operating system, giving it full control over how those TVs run. By owning the software, Amazon can decide exactly where ads appear, how they look, and how they connect with Alexa and Prime Video. That makes Fire TV a more valuable ad platform because Amazon collects all the viewing data and keeps every dollar spent on ads inside its ecosystem. The New York event is expected to feature new Echo, Fire TV, and Kindle devices, with Vega positioned as the centerpiece of Amazon’s push into first-party software ecosystems.

• Amazon is expanding grocery delivery through Winn-Dixie. A new partnership in Florida broadens Amazon’s reach into regional grocery markets and pressures incumbents like Instacart.

• Amazon reached a $2.5B settlement with the FTC over Prime practices. The package includes a $1B civil penalty and $1.5B in refunds to customers. The FTC said Amazon enrolled users without clear consent and made cancellations overly difficult. Amazon did not admit wrongdoing but must change how Prime sign-ups and cancellations work.

• The settlement is manageable relative to Amazon’s scale. While $2.5B is a large headline number, Amazon generates nearly that much revenue in a single day, so the direct financial impact is limited.

Stock Spotlights: Why good economic news spells trouble for risk-off names; LEU surges on Ohio Investment

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data this week pushed Treasury yields higher and lowered the odds of deeper Fed rate cuts. That kind of backdrop pressures speculative “risk-off” assets — the growth names, crypto plays, and early-stage innovators that thrive when money is cheap and investors are chasing risk. With borrowing costs staying higher, many of these stocks sold off.

LEU gained after announcing a major Ohio expansion. Centrus detailed plans to add at least 300 jobs through a multibillion-dollar investment in southern Ohio tied to enriched uranium production. That concrete growth catalyst sent the stock higher, bucking the broader risk-off trend.

OKLO slid despite sector strength earlier this year. Shares gave back 11.9% on the week, in part due to a Goldman Sachs note and profit-taking after the stock’s outsized run since April. Macro headwinds from higher yields also weighed on speculative nuclear names.

MSTR fell sharply alongside Bitcoin’s drop. MicroStrategy dropped 12.8% as Bitcoin broke below $111,000, directly pressuring the value of the company’s massive BTC holdings. The selloff intensified after reports of insider stock sales, adding another layer of caution.

MARA slid double-digits as Bitcoin weakness spread to miners. Marathon Digital fell 12% in tandem with Bitcoin’s selloff. Leverage in the miner group amplified downside pressure, leaving shares exposed to short-term volatility in crypto pricing.

We’re monitoring both crypto positions for potential exit, but aren’t selling into near-term weakness on no major news.

RDDT dropped after strong gains in recent months. Reddit lost 8.6% on the week, tied to profit-taking and a softer tape for risk-on growth names. The move follows a surge earlier in September driven by momentum around its advertising products.

LikeFolio data shows RDDT is still expanding on the platform front (actual visits to its platform up +5% YoY), though not as explosive as other video/media based players like TikTok and Instagram, and more importantly, the ad front. 

RDDT ad traction has remained robust, with visits to its ad buying site up +86% YoY, growing much faster vs. peers.

Potential catalysts to watch for include:

• Dynamic Product Ads are a new growth driver. Reddit rolled out Dynamic Product Ads in beta during 2024 and only made them widely available in May 2025. Because they are new, adoption is still ramping, but early results show they deliver nearly double the return on ad spend compared to Reddit’s older conversion campaigns, making them more appealing for advertisers and likely to draw larger budgets.

• Google renegotiation could unlock licensing upside. Reddit is revisiting its $60M+ data licensing deal with Google, aiming for higher payments or pricing that scales with how valuable its content is for AI and search. A stronger deal would diversify revenue streams beyond advertising and provide steadier income.

We’ll be monitoring the platform and ad sectors closely ahead of earnings expected at the end of October.